NHP Science

Our science

The Partnership aims to develop a series of Hazard Impact Models, as the basis to establish a world-leading natural hazard impact forecasting service. Hazard Impact Models combine data and expertise from Partners to identify the impact on populations, areas and assets from a range of natural hazards. These impacts could include loss of life, the scale of damage or disruption, numbers of people impacted and economic loss.

What is a Hazard?

We define hazards as:

“A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage” (UNISDR, 2009).

We focus on hazards that result from natural causes rather than industrial accidents or malicious attacks. These include flooding, landslides and extreme weather.

What are the impacts?

We measure the impacts of natural hazards through analysis of the interaction between the hazard and receptors. Receptors are the people, properties, infrastructure or environment that may be harmed as a result of interaction with the hazard. Different hazards affect different receptors to different extents, so the first challenge is identifying the key receptors and the impacts they may experience.

Classifying Impacts

To standardise impacts we are developing a classification of impacts (below). These characterise impacts into broad themes which can then be broken down into more specific impacts if necessary. The main themes are Danger to Life, Denial of Access and Damage to the Physical Environment. By using this classification, we can tailor impacts to the specific needs of users, while still being able to refer back to common themes. Additional tiers and impacts can be added to include new impacts.

Hazard Impact Modelling Structure

The Hazard Impact Models (HIMs) estimate the risks that arise from the relationships between the extent and magnitude of the hazard, the exposure of the public, infrastructure and environment, and their respective vulnerabilities.

The Hazard Impact Framework (HIF) provides guidance to ensure that Hazard Impact Models are created to the same standard. This means that in the future, we can put our models together to develop our understanding of the relationships between hazards. A key element of the HIF is the use of standardised interfaces for model outputs.  This means that in the future, we can combine our models into a virtual Hazard Impact Production System (HIPS). This will enhance both our understanding of the relationships between hazards and our ability to predict the impacts that arise from multiple hazards.

Hazard Impact Framework

The Hazard Impact Framework provides us with a common and consistent approach to modelling and forecasting natural hazard impacts. Specifically, the Hazard Impact Framework is a source of definitions and common concepts in impact modelling. It provides standard guidelines and, where necessary, stricter protocols for developing Hazard Impact Models.

Why do we need the framework?

• Scientists, technicians and project managers engaged in model development are provided with a clear workflow and extensive advice.
• Technicians building or maintaining systems using hazard impact model outputs are provided with consistent, standards-based interfaces by all models developed under the Framework.
• Expert users who produce warnings based on their interpretation of model outputs are provided with consistent impact and/or risk information relating to one or more hazards. It will therefore be easier for these users to prepare relevant and consistent advice and visual aids explaining complex multi-hazard incidents.
• Responders and decision-makers taking advice from multiple expert users are assured that this advice uses the same baseline assumptions and understandings. This helps to align different types of information with appropriate response decisions.
• Researchers undertaking long-term risk analysis have access to an open and transparent methodology for incorporating impact into their models.

EVER-EST project

The EVER-EST Horizon 2020 project (European Virtual Environment for Research – Earth Science Themes) will create a state of the art Virtual Research Environment (VRE) focused on the earth sciences. VREs provide the IT infrastructure to enable researchers to collaborate, share, analyse and visualise data over the internet.

The EVER-EST project will create a VRE focussed on the requirements of the Earth Science community, represented in this project by four Virtual Research Communities (VRCs). Within the earth sciences there are major challenges such as climate change research and ensuring the secure and sustainable availability of natural resources and understanding natural hazards which require inter-disciplinary working and sharing of large amounts of data across diverse geographic locations and science disciplines to work towards a solution.

The role of the Natural Hazards Partnership in the EVER-EST project

The Natural Hazards Partnership Hazard Impact Modelling Group provides one of the four Virtual Research Communities tasked with testing and validating the VRE being developed. Representatives from the four main Hazard Impact Modelling work packages are involved in the initial phases of the project which include creation of user stories, detailed user requirements, testing and validation of the VRE, as well as experimenting with the use of Research Objects for storage of research outcomes, methodologies, modelling workflows and data etc.

Objective 1: Establish a Virtual Research Environment for Earth Science

The VRE will allow Earth Science data users to:

• Discover, access, assess and process Earth Science datasets;
• Share data, models, algorithms, scientific results within a community or across communities;
• Capture, annotate and store the workflows, processes and results from their research activities;
• Work together in a real-time environment that facilitates the sharing of expertise, information and data resources;
• Ensure the long-term sustainability and preservation of data, models, workflows, tools and services developed by existing communities.

Objective 2: Validate the VRE with four main virtual research communities

The VRE will be validated and evaluated through four real-world use cases which are provided by existing communities from the Earth Science domain. The four VRCs are:
1.    Sea Monitoring VRC – led by CNR-ISMAR
2.    Natural Hazards VRC – led by the Natural Hazards Partnership
3.    Land Monitoring VRC – led by SatCen
4.    Supersites VRC – led by INGV

Objective 3: Implement and validate the use of "Research Objects" in Earth Science

The EVER-EST project will define, implement and validate the use of “Research Objects” concepts and technologies in the Earth Science domain as a mean to establish more effective collaboration. Modern scientists are calling for mechanisms that go beyond the publication of datasets. They increasingly need to systematically capture the life cycle of scientific investigations and provide a single entry point to access the information about the hypothesis investigated, the datasets used, the computations and experiments carried out, their outcomes, the people involved in the research, etc. Research Objects (RO) provide a structured container to encapsulate research data and the associated methodologies along with essential metadata descriptions.

Daily Hazard Assessment

The Natural Hazards Partnership’s Daily Hazard Assessment provides a 5-day overview of potential natural hazards and health implications for the UK. It helps improve the UK's preparedness and response to multi-hazard events.

The assessment covers 21 natural hazards, each evaluated and assigned a Colour State using the Hazard Matrix. It includes links to detailed information, enhancing decision-making and response times.

The assessment and its processes are regularly updated to ensure:

• Consistent hazard matrices for better understanding.
• Uniform risk colours across all hazards.
• Risks and assessments mapped to Science Notes.
• Established and tested hazard leads and contacts.

Accessing the Daily Hazard Assessment:

• Met Office Hazard Manager: Available to all Category 1 and 2 Responders, offering customizable delivery and notification options.
• Resilience Direct: For those involved in emergency planning, response, and recovery. The assessment is found under Planning -> Working Groups -> Natural Hazards Partnership, with an archive available from September 2015.

References

UNISDR. (2009). United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/UNISDR-terminology-2009-eng.pdf. Accessed 28/2/11. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng.htm