UK weather

Headline:

Rain clearing, sunshine and showers in the west.

Today:

Heavy rain clears eastwards by midday, followed by sunny spells with showers. Mainly across western areas, where some may be heavy with isolated hail and thunder. Winds gradually ease but remain gusty, especially in the west. Temperatures above average.

Tonight:

Scattered showers continue near western coasts. Elsewhere remains dry with clear spells. Cooler than recent nights, especially across eastern and southeastern areas, with isolated fog patches developing in sheltered areas.

Thursday:

Showers across parts of England and Wales gradually fade, leaving many areas drier and brighter. Cloud increases in Northern Ireland with rain arriving later. Windy in western and northern areas.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Showers affect northern and western areas at times, staying drier further south. Windy, especially in the north and west. Temperatures near average further north and above average in the south.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.