UK weather

Headline:

Gradually cooling down from the north.

This Evening and Tonight:

Dry for many. Isolated thunderstorms pushing eastwards this evening and overnight, with heavy downpours particularly possible over eastern England. Warm and muggy in the southeast, but fresher than recent nights elsewhere. A few showers for northern Scotland.

Saturday:

Still very warm and humid for southeast England as heavy showers and thunderstorms clear. Widely fine elsewhere with sunny spells and nearer average temperatures, though showers continuing for northern Scotland.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Fresher conditions reach the southeast by Sunday and generally staying dry into next week with sunny spells. Turning breezier in the northwest as various rain bands push in, perhaps heavy.

The first few days of this period are likely to be rather changeable, with many parts of the UK seeing showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain. Within this broad pattern, there is potential for a low pressure system to develop just to the west or possibly over the UK, which would bring the possibility more widespread rain and perhaps strong winds. By the latter part of August, there are signals for high pressure to become rather more dominant again, with more in the way of dry weather developing once more, especially towards parts of the north and west. Temperatures are more likely to be above normal than below overall, though the possibility of widespread or exceptional heat is perhaps a little lower than in recent weeks.

As we move into the start of meteorological autumn, signals for the prevailing weather patterns affecting the UK are weak, thus something close to the climatological norm is the current preferred story. This means a broad northwest-southeast split in conditions, with the high becoming centred further to the south than in the latter part of August and with more changeable conditions developing towards the north and northwest. Meanwhile, drier, more settled weather is slightly more likely towards the south and east. Temperatures are again likely to be above average overall, with the potential for late season hot spells or heatwaves, especially in the south.