UK weather

Headline:

A cloudy and chilly Bonfire Night.

This Evening and Tonight:

Away from the far northwest it will remain largely cloudy with drizzly showers for the northeast and Northern Ireland. Heavier showers for some, along southwestern coasts. Fog and frost patches are most likely in northwest Scotland. Temperatures near average.

Friday:

A cloudy, gloomy day for most, particularly for Wales and southern England under spells of rain. Drizzly showers in the northeast, and heavy showers in the far southwest. Feeling chilly.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

On Saturday, cloud and patchy rain for the north, but brighter spells in the south. From Sunday, after some frosty and foggy mornings, there will be spells of autumn sunshine.

High pressure begins to migrate away to the east allowing frontal systems to progress into the UK from the southwest, although exactly how much progress into the UK this makes is uncertain. However there is a greater chance that at least the southern half of the UK will see a change to milder and wetter conditions, at least for a time, while the north is more likely to remain drier. Toward the end of next week we may start to see some colder conditions spread from the north. While the nature of this colder outbreak is very uncertain, it could bring some wintry showers to the northern UK briefly. Thereafter, a transition towards a westerly flow is likely, bringing changeable conditions with rain more likely focused towards the north west.

During the second half of November, there is an increasing chance of changeable or more unsettled conditions developing, with spells of rain and the potential for strong winds at times. The extent and location of the wettest and windiest weather is very uncertain at this range, with northern and western areas generally most favoured, but there is a chance the wettest conditions could become more focussed across southern parts for a time. Towards the end of November, whilst confidence is very low in the overall weather patterns, there may be a tendency for the tracks of Atlantic lows to shift farther south. Temperatures are likely to be near or above average for much of the period, although colder interludes remain possible, perhaps more especially later in the period.