UK weather

Headline:

Rather warm and windy today.

Today:

Grey skies at first for many areas with outbreaks of drizzle. Skies brightening in the south this afternoon and turning rather warm. Winds strengthening with gales in the west by the afternoon. Heavy rain in the west later.

Tonight:

Heavy rain moves east across the UK overnight. Coastal gales continue in the west, but gradually ease in the early hours. Patchy rain in the south and rather mild.

Wednesday:

Rain moves east in the morning, clearing in the afternoon. Sunny spells and heavy showers follow in the west. Windy but rather warm in the east.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Turning a little fresher from Thursday with showers or longer spells of rain at times, mainly in the west. Warm sunny spells in between and cooler nights.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.