Impacts to people and infrastructure are possible and water safety is a particular concern.

Heatwave conditions, initially developing over southern and eastern England, are expected to persist well into next week as well as spreading into many other parts of England and Wales. The Met Office Amber extreme heat warning currently runs through the whole of Monday and Tuesday and will be updated as necessary as confidence in the duration of the heat through next week increases.

Peak temperatures are forecast to reach 35°C on Tuesday and Wednesday, with growing confidence in the current highest temperature on record for June being broken, this being 35.6°C recorded in Southampton in June 1976.

Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Steven Keates, said: “While heatwave criteria will be met for some in the south and southeast of England over the weekend, with temperatures into the low 30s Celsius possible, the warmth will expand and intensify at the start of next week, which, coupled with high temperatures overnight and high humidity, leads to potential impacts.

“Temperatures are forecast to reach 32°C on Monday, climbing further to 35°C on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday temperatures are currently forecast to drop slightly, with a peak of 34°C more confined to the southeast of England. Importantly high humidity will also mean this feels close, warmer and more uncomfortable for many. Tropical nights, where the temperature doesn’t drop below 20°C are also likely for some, especially in urban areas.”

The warning highlights potential health impacts for those vulnerable to extreme heat, as well as the potential for heat-related issues for the wider population and a range of sectors such as transport, energy and water supply. A combination of higher humidity and temperatures remaining high overnight exacerbate health impacts.

An increase in potential water safety incidents is also noted, as more people are likely to visit coastal areas, lakes or rivers.

The UK Health Security Agency has also issued a series of Yellow and Amber Heat Health Alerts, which specifically highlight the potential health and social care impacts.

The warmth also brings with it the risk of some thundery downpours for some on Monday and Tuesday for a time, though these are forecast to be isolated in nature.

The exception for the hot conditions is further to the northwest in the coming days, which will see more near-average temperatures through the weekend and the return of more unsettled weather on Tuesday.

Staying safe in cold water 

People heading to the coast should be mindful that sea-surface temperatures are not as high as they would be in mid-summer.

Samantha Hughes is the National Water Safety Partner at the RNLI. She said: “With warmer weather approaching, it’s important to remember that the water is still cold. Entering it unexpectedly can lead to cold water shock, causing a sudden increase in breathing and heart rate, which may trigger panic.

“If you find yourself struggling in the water, remember to Float to Live: tilt your head back so your ears are submerged, relax and control your breathing. You may need to gently use your hands to help you stay afloat, and it’s ok if your legs sink—everyone floats differently.

“Where possible, always choose a lifeguarded beach, and swim between the red and yellow flags. In a coastal emergency remember to call 999 for the coastguard.”

You can find water safety advice on our website and in the refreshed Met Office app, now featuring a dedicated beach forecast with tide times, wave heights and sea-surface temperatures, as well as guidance on UV and pollen levels. 

If you're planning on enjoying the water, here are three simple ways you can help keep yourself safer: 

  1. Check the water temperature, our seas and river temperatures are low enough to cause cold water shock when 15°C or lower 
  2. Wear a wetsuit if you plan on spending any length of time in the water 
  3. Wearing a life jacket or swimming buoy can increase your chances if you experience cold water shock 

Outlook for next week

The high temperatures are forecast to persist through the week, especially in the southeast of England. There is some uncertainty in how long the highest temperatures will continue due to increasing cloud and thunderstorm risk, the detail of which will become clearer as we get closer to the time. It is expected further warnings will be issued once this confidence increases. Further to the northwest conditions will be cooler and cloudier, with some light rain moving in at times.

Hot weather and climate change

The current highest temperature on record for June is 35.6°C and there remains a chance of this figure being challenged next week.

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves has increased worldwide. Met Office projections indicate that hot spells will become more frequent in our future climate, particularly over the south-east of the UK. Temperatures are projected to rise in all seasons, but the heat would be most intense in summer.

It is virtually certain that human influence has increased the occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. Numerous climate attribution studies have shown that human influence increased the chance that specific extreme heat events would occur, such as the summer of 2018 and July 2022.

You can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.  

Sun setting over sand dunes.