Temperatures will quickly rise on Monday morning and are forecast to reach 34°C in southern parts of England.

The heat will build further into Tuesday, with highs of 37°C forecast for southern England and 35°C southeast Wales. The peak of the heatwave is now forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, when temperatures are expected to climb to 38°C. By Friday conditions will be less hot, with highs of 33°C forecast across eastern areas.

Overnight temperatures will also be very high, with widespread Tropical Nights, where the temperature does not drop below 20°C, across southern parts of England especially in urban areas. Humidity is also a factor, making this heatwave even more impactful with heat stress a danger to all.

Dew points, which indicate how humid the air is, are forecast to be around 22°C on Wednesday and Thursday. For comparison, during the record breaking July 2022 heatwave they were only in single figures, highlighting how oppressive this heatwave will be.

Met Office Amber extreme heat warnings have been issued and run from Monday morning through to Thursday night and will be updated as necessary as confidence in the duration of the heat through next week increases.

It is now likely the current highest temperature on record for June will be broken, this being 35.6°C recorded in Southampton in June 1976 and Camden Square in June 1957.

Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Tom Crabtree, said: “The forecast heatwave is developing into an impactful severe weather event, with record breaking June temperatures and very high humidity. The combination of heat and humidity will be oppressive and bring impacts across society from public health and infrastructure, to power and water supplies.

“As well as very high daytime temperatures, there will be consecutive nights where temperatures do not drop below 20°C, which is called a Tropical Night. This will make it very hard for people to recover from the daytime heat, exacerbating the heat stress impacts.”

The warning highlights potential health impacts for the wider population, not just those vulnerable to extreme heat. It also warns of potential heat-related issues for a range of sectors such as transport, energy and water supply.

An increase in potential water safety incidents is also noted, as more people are likely to visit coastal areas, lakes or rivers.

The UK Health Security Agency has also issued a series of Yellow and Amber Heat Health Alerts, which specifically highlight the potential health and social care impacts.

The warmth also brings with it the risk of some thundery downpours for some on Monday and Tuesday for a time, though these are forecast to be isolated in nature.

The exception for the hot conditions is further to the northwest in the coming days, which will see more near-average temperatures through the weekend and the return of more unsettled weather on Monday.

Staying safe in cold water 

People heading to the coast should be mindful that sea-surface temperatures are not as high as they would be in mid-summer.

Samantha Hughes is the National Water Safety Partner at the RNLI. She said: “With warmer weather approaching, it’s important to remember that the water is still cold. Entering it unexpectedly can lead to cold water shock, causing a sudden increase in breathing and heart rate, which may trigger panic.

“If you find yourself struggling in the water, remember to Float to Live: tilt your head back so your ears are submerged, relax and control your breathing. You may need to gently use your hands to help you stay afloat, and it’s ok if your legs sink—everyone floats differently.

“Where possible, always choose a lifeguarded beach, and swim between the red and yellow flags. In a coastal emergency remember to call 999 for the coastguard.”

You can find water safety advice on our website and in the refreshed Met Office app, now featuring a dedicated beach forecast with tide times, wave heights and sea-surface temperatures, as well as guidance on UV and pollen levels. 

If you're planning on enjoying the water, here are three simple ways you can help keep yourself safer: 

  1. Check the water temperature, our seas and river temperatures are low enough to cause cold water shock when 15°C or lower 
  2. Wear a wetsuit if you plan on spending any length of time in the water 
  3. Wearing a life jacket or swimming buoy can increase your chances if you experience cold water shock 

Outlook for next week

The high temperatures are forecast to persist through the week, especially in the southeast of England. There is some uncertainty in how long the highest temperatures will continue due to increasing cloud and thunderstorm risk, the detail of which will become clearer as we get closer to the time. It is expected further warnings will be issued once this confidence increases. Further to the northwest conditions will be cooler and cloudier, with some light rain moving in at times.

Hot weather and climate change

The current highest temperature on record for June is 35.6°C and there remains a chance of this figure being challenged next week.

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves has increased worldwide. Met Office projections indicate that hot spells will become more frequent in our future climate, particularly over the south-east of the UK. Temperatures are projected to rise in all seasons, but the heat would be most intense in summer.

It is virtually certain that human influence has increased the occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. Numerous climate attribution studies have shown that human influence increased the chance that specific extreme heat events would occur, such as the summer of 2018 and July 2022.

You can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.  

Sun setting over a golden field