The start of the week will see widespread dry conditions, with lots of sunshine across the UK on Monday. Temperatures will be a little above average with highs of 25°C in southwestern England and 22°C in north-western England. Tuesday will also be largely settled, though with more cloud and the odd shower, predominantly in southern parts of the UK.

Heavy rain threat increases markedly from Wednesday

Wednesday currently looks to mark the start of a more unsettled spell, with showers and outbreaks of rain becoming increasingly widespread as warm, humid air spreads northwards across the UK. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop, particularly across England and Wales, with a more organised area of thundery rain approaching southwestern areas later in the day.

Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, Mark Sidaway, said: "While many areas will see dry and increasingly warm conditions at the start of the week, attention is turning to the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms from Wednesday onwards.

"As warmer and more humid air moves north across the UK, there is an increasing likelihood of some heavy rain developing. Some places could see 20 to 30mm of rain in just a few hours, while there is also the potential for higher totals where thunderstorms repeatedly affect the same locations.

"The detail of which areas will see the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain, so stay up to date with the forecast this week to keep updated on the increasing risk of impactful weather during the latter part of the week."

Local rainfall totals of 20 to 30mm within three to four hours are possible, while cumulative totals of 40 to 60mm may develop in some locations. Much of the uncertainty relates to where areas of thunderstorms develop, meaning rainfall amounts could vary significantly over relatively short distances.

By Thursday, a band of heavy and potentially thundery rain is expected to move slowly northwards through England and Wales. Some of this rain could become slow-moving or repeatedly affect the same locations, which could lead to more substantial rainfall totals.

Risk of significant rainfall accompanied by strengthening winds

Friday could see a slow-moving band of heavy rain across the UK as an area of low pressure develops. Some of this rainfall could be intense and accompanied by thunderstorms.

Alongside the rainfall risk, winds are expected to strengthen during Friday too, especially in eastern and northeastern coastal areas.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

Rain drops falling into a puddle causing ripples.