Temperatures will begin to rise from Thursday as high pressure brings more settled conditions and clear skies for many. The exception will be parts of western Scotland and Northern Ireland where it will be cooler and cloudier with some rain at times. 

Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, Steve Kocher, said: “Temperatures will climb through the weekend, especially in the south, where 30°C is likely to be recorded on Saturday and 32°C on Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday when we could see 33°C recorded in southern England and the Midlands.”

“It is likely that the May and Spring UK temperature records will be broken over the Bank Holiday weekend, with forecast temperatures surpassing the existing record of 32.8°C. As well as it being hot, there will be lots of dry and sunny weather for much of the UK. There will however be more cloud and some showers in Northern Ireland and western Scotland through the weekend. With relatively low sea surface temperatures there is also likely to be some low cloud and sea fog clinging closely to western coasts.”

READ MORE: How often do we reach 30°C in May in the UK?

The Met Office is encouraging people to be WeatherReady this Bank Holiday weekend as temperatures are set to rise, with many expected to head outdoors and to the coast.

With lifeguard rescues having more than doubled last year according to the RNLI, planning ahead is important. Using tools such as the beach forecasts on the Met Office app helps people to better understand local conditions and stay safe.

People heading to the coast should be mindful that sea surface temperatures are not as high as they would be in mid-summer when the UK more usually records temperatures in the 30°Cs. Current sea surface temperatures range from 9°C around Scotland to 13°C around the south west of the England.

Heatwave this Bank Holiday

Heatwave thresholds - defined as three consecutive days at or above a set temperature - are likely to be reached in parts of the UK from Sunday, most likely in south-eastern England. As the Bank Holiday weekend progresses, these conditions are expected to become more widespread, extending across central and western England and into parts of Wales, as temperatures remain well above average.

A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by UK county.

Why is it turning warmer

Although winds are expected to turn more southerly by the end of the week, the rise in temperatures is not primarily due to hot air being transported directly from southern Europe or North Africa.

Instead, the main driver of the warming trend is the development of high pressure over and near the UK. As this high-pressure strengthens, it causes sinking air in the atmosphere. This descending air is compressed as it moves downward, leading to warming through a process known as adiabatic compression.

In simple terms, as air is compressed, its temperature increases. This process can significantly raise temperatures at the surface, even when the original air mass is not especially warm. In this case, much of the air over the UK still originates from the Atlantic, but it becomes warmer as it descends under high pressure.

This mechanism is a common feature of warmer spells in the UK and is often more important than the transport of heat from lower latitudes.

Staying safe in the heat

As people prepare to meet up with friends and family to enjoy the sun this week, the British Red Cross is offering guidance that can help everyone stay safe,

Dafydd Beech, National Community Education Manager at the British Red Cross, said: “As we come into the summer months, warm weather gives us a chance to get out a bit more and enjoy ourselves. It’s important to take care while you have fun with friends and family to avoid becoming dehydrated, getting sun burn or even heat stroke. 

“Getting into the habit of taking steps whenever temperatures rise can really help. It can be simple things like wearing sunscreen, drinking plenty of fluids or ensuring you take breaks from the sun. Building these habits early means people are better prepared if hotter weather lasts longer.”

May heat and climate change

A climate attribution study published last summer by Met Office scientists found that the chances of surpassing the May temperature record set in 1944 have been increasing as our climate changes as a consequence of human greenhouse gas emissions.

The study found that breaking the 32.8°C May record is around three times more likely now in our current climate than it would have been in a natural climate not impacted by greenhouse gas emissions. What was around a 1-in-100 year event is now around a 1-in-33 year event.  

You can read the full research in the Royal Meteorological Society’s Journal ‘Weather’.

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Sunset over a lake with stratus clouds.