May is National Clean Air Month, so we're exploring the Met Office's role in monitoring air quality and looking at how climate change can impact the air we breathe every day.
Air pollution is the largest environmental risk to public health in the UK. UK government estimate that 28,000 and 36,000 deaths annually due to long-term exposure. Pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter, primarily from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, can exacerbate conditions like asthma and cardiovascular disease.
Climate change can also play a role in exacerbating air pollution. Ongoing research and vigilant monitoring are crucial to tackling the evolving challenges of a changing climate. Alongside its partners, the Met Office is striving to deepen our understanding of the interplay between air quality, climate, and health.
READ MORE: How is the UK’s air quality landscape evolving?
The Met Office's Role in Predicting Air Quality
The Met Office plays a pivotal role in monitoring and forecasting air quality both at home and abroad for the UK government. By integrating knowledge of pollutant emissions with meteorological data and chemical evolution, the Met Office can predict atmospheric concentrations of pollutants. This forecasting is essential for public health, as it helps to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of poor air quality.
In collaboration with the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Met Office co-lead the UK Clean Air Programme from 2019 to 2025, aiming to tackle both indoor and outdoor air quality issues. The research spanned local to global scales, from short-term forecasts to long-term climate projections, ensuring comprehensive coverage of air quality dynamics.
READ MORE: New portal improves air quality data accessibility
Climate Change and Air Quality
Climate change is intricately linked to air quality. Warmer temperatures and altered weather patterns can trap pollutants, leading to higher concentrations of harmful substances in the air. Hotter, drier summers in the UK are also likely to increase emissions from wildfires, exacerbating air pollution.
Moreover, certain pollutants, like ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), are radiatively active, meaning they can influence the climate by providing additional warming or cooling. These short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) have a significant, near-term impact on the climate, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring and mitigation efforts.
READ MORE: How do climate change, air quality and our health interact?
Future Directions
The future of air quality in the UK looks promising, thanks to initiatives aimed at reducing emissions and improving forecasting models. The UK's transition to Net Zero is expected to further decrease air pollution, particularly from road transport and domestic heating. However, continuous research and monitoring are essential to address the evolving challenges posed by both societal and climate change.
The Met Office is at the forefront of this research, developing new modelling frameworks and conducting studies to better understand the interactions between air quality, climate, and health. Their work includes projects like the Climate Science for Service Partnership China (CSSP China) and contributions to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
