The latest 10-day forecast presents a more complex picture than usual, with the UK’s weather increasingly influenced by developments over the Atlantic.
While the immediate outlook features warm, even hot conditions and the potential for thundery showers, the latter half of the period hinges on the behaviour of tropical systems and shifting pressure patterns.
A tale of two systems
At the heart of this week’s forecast lies a dynamic interplay between low pressure to the west and high pressure over mainland Europe. This configuration is drawing a southerly flow across the UK, ushering in warm, and at times locally hot, air. However, the presence of low pressure also introduces frontal systems, bringing cloud and the risk of thundery showers.
As we approach the weekend, high pressure begins to assert itself more dominantly, although its position to the northeast of the UK means the southerly to southeasterly flow persists. This setup favours continued warmth, particularly in the southwest, while eastern areas may experience more cloud and moisture drawn in from the North Sea, leading to some grey and potentially disappointing mornings.
As high pressure builds to the north this weekend it will stay very warm for many 🌡️
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 13, 2025
However, the change in wind direction could bring cooler and cloudier weather along eastern coasts ☁️
Here is the latest...👇 pic.twitter.com/U6IsPHZo69
Friday: sunshine and rising temperatures
Friday continues the theme of warmth, with much of England and Wales enjoying blue skies and sunshine. Temperatures will climb again, with highs around 31°C in the London area and widespread mid to high 20s elsewhere. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see a slight dip, with highs around 21-22°C, marking a cooler turn compared to earlier in the week.
Weekend: cloud in the east, heat in the west
As we move into the weekend, the distribution of temperatures and cloud cover becomes more pronounced. Eastern areas, influenced by low cloud from the North Sea, may start off grey on Saturday. While this cloud is expected to lift and break by the afternoon, some areas may see it linger longer than hoped.
In contrast, the west will enjoy the best of the brightness and warmth. Northern Ireland, Wales, and the southwest, including Devon and Cornwall, are set to see highs around 29°C. Eastern areas will be cooler, with temperatures in the low 20s, offering a brief respite from the heat for those less fond of high temperatures.
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Sunday: similar setup, added bluster
Sunday’s outlook mirrors Saturday’s, with lingering low cloud in the east and brighter, warmer conditions in the west. However, a developing area of thicker cloud in the southwest, particularly across Devon, Cornwall, and parts of Wales, could bring showers, some of which may turn heavy and thundery.
As the UK finds itself on the edge of the high-pressure system, conditions may become blustery, especially in the afternoon and in areas affected by showers. Gusty winds are possible, adding to the unsettled feel in some regions. Temperatures will remain high, with 27-28°C expected in the southwest, while eastern coasts stay cooler under persistent cloud.
Temperature trends and regional shifts
Throughout the week, the location of peak temperatures shifts noticeably. On Wednesday, warmth is widespread. By Thursday, the northeast of Scotland and eastern England see the highest temperatures. On Friday, this flips, with the south and southwest becoming the warmest regions.
This trend continues into the weekend, with southern Wales, southwestern England, western Scotland, and Northern Ireland seeing the highest temperatures on Saturday. By Sunday, the warmth spreads eastward, with central England warming up. Eastern areas, however, remain closer to seasonal averages.
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Monday: warmth persists, cloud increases
Monday maintains the general pattern of warmth, though some areas will begin to see temperatures creep up slightly. The sunniest and warmest conditions will continue to favour the west, while the north and east remain cloudier. In some areas, cloud may linger throughout the day.
The southwest may turn breezier, with gusts and the chance of heavy thundery showers. These conditions mark the beginning of a more unsettled phase, as the influence of high pressure starts to wane.
Atlantic uncertainty and tropical storm Erin
Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes more uncertain, largely due to developments in the Atlantic. Tropical storm Erin is currently moving towards the United States, and its eventual path could influence UK weather.
It’s not uncommon for tropical systems at this time of year to be picked up by the jet stream. Recent examples include Storm Floris and ex-tropical storm Dexter. The impact on the UK depends on where these systems sit relative to the jet stream, on the cooler, low-pressure side, they can bring wet and windy weather; on the warmer, high-pressure side, they may remain offshore and contribute to warmer conditions.
Sometimes the jet stream flows in a relatively straight path, much like a fast-moving river. At other times, it meanders and loops, slowing down the movement of weather systems and making their paths less predictable. These meanders can lead to prolonged periods of wet or dry weather, depending on where the jet stream is positioned.
The jet stream can also intensify weather systems. When it flows over an area of low pressure, it can act like a vacuum cleaner, drawing air out of the top of the system. This causes the pressure to drop further, strengthening the system and often resulting in stormier conditions.
Storm Floris, for instance, sat on the low pressure side and brought unsettled weather to the UK. Dexter, on the other hand, became a filling feature and stayed to the west, helping to draw in heat from the continent.
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Tracking Erin: model divergence
As Erin evolves, it is expected to become an ex-tropical storm. Forecast models diverge on its trajectory. The American model suggests a path towards Florida, while the Met Office’s global model and the European model indicate a north-eastward turn along the eastern seaboard.
The key question is where Erin will sit in relation to the jet stream later in the week. From Monday onwards, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the weekend’s pattern, with high pressure slightly more centred over the UK. This would sustain the warm southerly flow, particularly in the south.
However, this setup also introduces the potential for more unsettled weather, with cloud and thundery showers drifting north-eastwards. By Tuesday, forecasting becomes more challenging, as the influence of high pressure diminishes and showery conditions increase from the southwest.
End of week: model scenarios
Towards the end of the week, the Met Office is closely monitoring Erin’s development using multiple model runs. The European model, for example, varies initial conditions to produce a range of outcomes.
One scenario shows a deep area of low pressure to the west, bringing wet and windy conditions similar to storm Floris. Another builds a ridge of high pressure, suggesting continued settled and warm weather.
These divergent outcomes underscore the uncertainty in the latter half of the forecast period. While temperatures are expected to remain above average, the degree of cloud cover, rainfall, and wind will depend heavily on Erin’s path and interaction with the jet stream.
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In summary, the next 10 days offer a mix of warm and hot conditions, thundery showers, and increasing uncertainty. The first half of the period is dominated by high pressure and a southerly flow, bringing widespread warmth and sunshine, particularly in the west.
Eastern areas may see more cloud and cooler temperatures, especially over the weekend. Thundery showers are possible, especially in the north and southwest, with gusty winds adding to the unsettled feel.
From Monday onwards, the forecast becomes more complex, with tropical storm Erin potentially influencing UK weather. While warmth is likely to persist, the risk of showers and wind increases, and the exact outcome will depend on Erin’s trajectory and its interaction with the jet stream.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.