After some exceptionally warm conditions at the end of September, the UK’s weather is taking on a more typically autumnal appearance.
A powerful jet stream will continue to drive deep areas of low pressure across the North Atlantic during the next 10 days, but the strongest systems are generally expected to pass to the north of the UK.
This will establish a recurring pattern, with northern areas seeing the greatest chance of rain and strong winds, while southern parts of the country are often drier. Temperatures are expected to remain close to average overall, although there will be some regional and day-to-day variation.
Showers followed by rain in the northwest
Thursday will bring a mixture of sunny spells and showers. The showers will be most frequent across western parts of the UK, although there should be fewer than on Wednesday and they will tend to ease later. Eastern areas will have the driest conditions, with temperatures reaching the high teens or low 20s Celsius.
Cloud, rain and strengthening winds will then move into western areas on Thursday night. The rain could become persistent across western Scotland, Northern Ireland, western parts of northern England and Wales. Further southeast, clearer skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall, giving a cool or locally chilly start to Friday.
Friday will remain driest and brightest in central, southern and south-eastern England, where sunny spells will continue through much of the day. Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will have more unsettled conditions, with weather fronts bringing heavy and persistent rain in places. Lively showers could also produce thunder, hail and gusty winds, particularly in the northwest.
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Uncertainty over Saturday’s rain
The forecast becomes more uncertain on Saturday, particularly over the location and intensity of a band of rain moving across the UK. Some computer model simulations develop a particularly wet day across parts of Wales, northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland. Other simulations place the rain further south and suggest it will be lighter and more showery, while some produce very little rain.
The most likely outcome is for a band of rain to affect parts of the Midlands, southwest England, Wales and northern England before becoming lighter and more fragmented later. However, a period of heavier and more persistent rain further north cannot yet be ruled out. There should be drier conditions to the south of the rain band, with showers across northern Scotland.
These differences are linked to relatively small variations in the position and shape of the jet stream. Subtle developments over North America and the Atlantic could determine whether the weather front strengthens significantly as it approaches the UK. This means the detail of Saturday’s forecast remains subject to change.
A quieter Sunday
Confidence is higher for Sunday, when pressure will build from the south and bring a quieter day for most. There will still be showery rain across the far north of Scotland and a few showers elsewhere, with a good deal of cloud. However, most places should remain dry.
Temperatures will generally be in the high teens or low 20s Celsius, leaving conditions close to average for early October.
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A north-south split next week
Another deep area of low pressure will move towards Iceland at the beginning of next week. Its associated weather fronts are expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday, while southern areas remain largely dry.
As the front moves southwards, high pressure should build temporarily, settling the weather for a couple of days. Tuesday is expected to bring westerly winds, with rain most likely across western Scotland and mainly dry conditions in the south and southeast. By Wednesday, a north-westerly airflow will bring showers into northern and western Scotland, while most other areas remain dry. Temperatures will be around average.
Higher pressure may become increasingly influential through the middle of next week, keeping much of the UK dry. By the end of the 10-day period, however, it could retreat southwards, allowing more changeable, blustery and rainy weather to return to northern and north-western areas.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
