223 FXXT01 EGRR 240357 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.01.2019 TROPICAL STORM RILEY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8S 120.7E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.01.2019 16.8S 120.7E MODERATE 12UTC 24.01.2019 16.6S 119.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.01.2019 16.5S 118.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.01.2019 16.7S 117.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.01.2019 17.2S 116.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.01.2019 17.5S 115.3E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.01.2019 17.5S 113.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.01.2019 18.0S 112.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.01.2019 17.9S 109.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.01.2019 18.3S 108.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.01.2019 18.4S 106.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.01.2019 18.1S 105.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.01.2019 17.5S 103.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95P ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8S 141.7E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.01.2019 11.8S 141.7E WEAK 12UTC 24.01.2019 12.6S 140.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.01.2019 13.0S 140.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.01.2019 13.6S 141.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.01.2019 14.8S 141.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.01.2019 15.4S 142.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.01.2019 16.4S 142.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.01.2019 17.6S 142.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.01.2019 19.4S 141.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.01.2019 19.9S 140.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.01.2019 20.3S 139.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.01.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.5S 91.4E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.01.2019 11.5S 91.4E WEAK 12UTC 26.01.2019 10.8S 92.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.01.2019 10.1S 94.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.01.2019 9.6S 97.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.01.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.3S 162.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.01.2019 15.3S 162.0W MODERATE 12UTC 28.01.2019 17.4S 161.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.01.2019 20.5S 161.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.01.2019 25.6S 160.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.01.2019 31.6S 159.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240357