274 FXXT01 EGRR 161600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.02.2020 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93P ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1S 175.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.02.2020 12.1S 175.9W MODERATE 00UTC 17.02.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 16.8S 170.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.02.2020 16.8S 170.3W MODERATE 12UTC 17.02.2020 18.3S 170.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.02.2020 18.6S 169.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2020 21.9S 167.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.02.2020 25.8S 164.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.02.2020 30.5S 162.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.02.2020 36.1S 159.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2020 43.1S 155.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.02.2020 45.6S 152.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.02.2020 43.6S 145.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.02.2020 42.7S 137.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.02.2020 45.6S 130.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.7S 172.9E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.02.2020 11.7S 172.9E MODERATE 12UTC 18.02.2020 12.4S 173.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2020 12.5S 175.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2020 12.3S 177.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.02.2020 13.0S 179.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.02.2020 13.8S 177.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.02.2020 15.1S 175.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.02.2020 17.1S 174.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.02.2020 19.5S 174.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2020 21.1S 174.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.7S 139.1E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.02.2020 11.6S 139.1E WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.02.2020 11.6S 138.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.02.2020 12.4S 138.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161600