Tropical cyclone forecast verification

The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last few seasons. The 'Observed and forecast tracks' links show forecast tracks for individual tropical cyclones accompanied by comments on the Met Office global model performance. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for various ocean basins.

For verification statistics from seasons earlier than those presented here please email [email protected]. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the Tropical cyclones warnings and guidance page.

 

Observed and forecast tracks (includes currently active seasons)

Northern hemisphere 2022

Southern hemisphere 2021-22 Northern hemisphere 2021 Southern hemisphere 2020-21 Northern hemisphere 2020 Southern hemisphere 2019-20

Seasonal verification reports (produced after the end of each season)

Northern hemisphere 2021

Southern hemisphere 2020-21 Northern hemisphere 2020 Southern hemisphere 2019-20 Northern hemisphere 2019

Southern hemisphere 2018-19

Forecast error graphs

Northern hemisphere North-west Pacific North-east Pacific North Atlantic North Indian  
Southern hemisphere South-west Indian Australian      

 

Tropical cyclone tracking and forecast verification method

The method used to track tropical cyclones and verify forecasts in Met Office models is available in this publication:

Heming, J.T., 2016. Tropical cyclone tracking and verification techniques for Met Office numerical weather prediction models. Meteorological Applications.