Tropical cyclone forecast verification
Tropical cyclone short-period forecast verification
The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last few seasons. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for the various ocean basins as well as intensity errors for recent seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres.
For information on current tropical cyclones go to the Tropical cyclones warnings and guidance page. For information on historical tropical cyclone activity trends go to the Past tropical cyclones page.
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Seasonal verification reports (produced after the end of each season) |
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| Northern hemisphere 2024 | Southern hemisphere 2023-24 | Northern hemisphere 2023 | Southern hemisphere 2022-23 | Northern hemisphere 2022 | ||
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Forecast error graphs |
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| Northern hemisphere | North-west Pacific | North-east Pacific | North Atlantic | North Indian | ||
| Southern hemisphere | South-west Indian | Australian | ||||
Tropical cyclone tracking and forecast verification method
The method used to track tropical cyclones and verify forecasts in Met Office models is available in this publication:
Heming, J.T., 2016. Tropical cyclone tracking and verification techniques for Met Office numerical weather prediction models. Meteorological Applications.
