Guidance, factsheets and science reports

UKCP guides and documentation

Demonstration projects

Find out how different sectors are using UKCP18 and climate projections.

Sector specialists describe how you can use the UKCP18 with existing methods and risk assessments. They also consider new methods that make the most of using the UKCP18 dataset.

UKCP18 demonstration projects — explore all of our demonstration projects and see how you can use UKCP18 datasets

• Assessing climate change risk in Yorkshire (PDF - 336kB)
• Coastal cliff recession under climate change (PDF - 516kB)
• Future surface water flood hazard risk (PDF - 227kB)
• Thermal performance of buildings (PDF - 573kB)
• Forests for the future (PDF - 826kB)
• Water resources and drought planning (PDF - 1.3MB)

UKCP18 data availability, access and formats

Find out what data is available for download and how you can access it.

• UKCP18 Guidance: Data availability, access and formats (PDF - 1.5MB) [Updated October 2020]

UKCP18 factsheets and key results

We produce a series of short documents, which summarise the key results for a number of UKCP18 variables and metrics. 

UKCP Products

• UKCP Factsheet: Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes (PDF - 832kB)  [New release - October 2020]
• UKCP Factsheet: UKCP Global (60 km) - Low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) (PDF - 1.2MB) [New release - October 2020]
• UKCP18 Factsheet: UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections (PDF - 3.3MB)
• UKCP18 Factsheet: Derived projections (PDF - 1.1MB)

Climate Metrics

• UKCP18 Factsheet: Temperature (PDF - 1.6MB)
• UKCP18 Factsheet: Precipitation (PDF - 1.6MB) 
• UKCP18 Factsheet: Snow (PDF - 1.6MB)
• UKCP18 Factsheet: Wind (PDF - 798kB)
• UKCP18 Factsheet: Sea level rise and storm surge (PDF - 871kB)

Climate Indices

• UKCP18 Factsheet: Weather types (PDF - 1.2MB)
• UKCP Factsheet: European Climate Indices: Weather Patterns (PDF - 1.6MB) [New release - October 2020]
• UKCP Factsheet: European Climate Indices: Jet Stream Position and Strength (PDF - 1.2MB) [New release - October 2020]
• UKCP Factsheet: European Climate Indices: Winter Atlantic Pressure Gradient (North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO) (PDF - 1.4MB) [New release - October 2020]
• UKCP Factsheet: Soil Moisture and the Water Balance (PDF - 1.3MB) [New release - October 2020]

 

What are Representative Concentration Pathways?

Find out more about what Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are and how we use them in climate projections.

• UKCP18 Guidance: Representative Concentration Pathways (PDF - 259kB)

Caveats and limitations

Everything you need to be aware of when using UKCP18 datasets, including caveats, limitations and how to use the data.

• UKCP18 Guidance: Caveats and limitations (PDF - 787kB)

A technical note and FAQ document relating to the UKCP Updates news announcement on 24 September 2020 can be found here:

• UKCP Local: Graupel Technical Note (PDF - 6.3MB)
• UKCP Local: Frequently Asked Questions (PDF - 196kB)

How to use the different sets of Land Projections

There are three sets of projections available over UK land: probabilistic, global and regional.

This guidance document helps users choose the set of projections that meets their needs.

• How to use the different sets of Land Projections (PDF - 1.8MB)

How to bias correct UKCP18 data

The choice of whether to bias correct data and the method chosen can be very specific to the user application. For this reason, UKCP18 projections are presented without additional bias correction.

This guide helps users to make informed choices about bias correction.

• How to bias correct UKCP18 data (PDF - 809kB)

Science reports

Science overview

This document shows the highlights from each of the components of UKCP18. This includes observations, projections over land and marine projections.

• UKCP18 science overview (PDF - 20MB)

Science reports

Our science reports provide headline messages, descriptions of the methods used, an evaluation of the underlying models and future projections.

• State of the UK climate report [Updated September 2020]
• UKCP18 marine report (PDF - 5MB)
• UKCP18 Land Projections: Science report (PDF - 59MB)
• UKCP Local (convection-permitting model projections: Science report) (PDF - 45MB)
• UKCP18 Derived projections of future climate over the UK (PDF - 11MB)
• UK Climate Projections: UKCP Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes (PDF - 3.5MB) [New Release October 2020]

• UK Climate Projections: Assessment of Drifts and Internal Variability in UKCP Projections (PDF - 2.7MB) [New Release October 2020]

 

Technical notes

A series of technical notes clarifying particular questions and issues about UKCP18.

• UKCP18 technical note: Clipping and baseline advice on Land Strand 1 data in UKCP18 (PDF - 1.1MB)

This note covers characteristics of the probabilistic projections data, such as clipping at extreme ends of the distributions and non-zero sum of anomalies during the baseline period.

• Hadley Centre technical note 1010: The elicitation of distributions of parameters in HadGEM3 versions GA4 and GA7 for use in perturbed parameter ensembles

This note provides more detail about the perturbed parameter set of global projections.