UK Climate Projections (UKCP)

What are the UK Climate Projections (UKCP)?

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP) is a climate analysis tool that forms part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme. The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) support the UKCP.

UK Climate Projections headline findings

A summary of the most recent climate projections for the UK, including local, regional and global data.

• UK Climate Projections: Headline findings (PDF - 337kB)
• UK Climate Projections Science Overview Executive Summary (PDF - 884kB)

Summary material on the UKCP findings.

• UKCP18 overview slide set (PDF - 1.6MB)
• UKCP18 overview slide set with accompanying notes (PDF - 4.1MB)
• UKCP18 infographic: climate change over land (PDF - 6.6MB)
• UKCP18 infographic: marine climate change (PDF - 442kb)
• UKCP Local overview slide set (PDF - 3.3MB)
• UKCP Local overview slide set with accompanying notes (PDF - 2.1MB)
• UKCP Local infographics
  • Headline findings (PDF - 10.2MB) 
  • What's new and exciting (PDF - 22MB)
  • How it reinforces understanding (PDF - 16.6MB)
• Watch our videos on the science behind UKCP

Latest developments

UKCP Local (2.2 km) Correction

Users of the UKCP Local 2.2km climate model should be aware of an error within the computer code, affecting how much solid precipitation falls as snow and how much falls as small ice pellets. No other UKCP product is affected by the error and top-level UK climate change messages from UKCP are unchanged.  Much of the existing 2.2km data can still be used for many applications, but users are urged not to use data containing projections of snow and winter temperatures over Scotland. Full information can be found on the Project News page here.

UKCP Enhancements – the latest additions to the UKCP set of climate data (October 2020)

A set of new UKCP products are now available to use alongside the existing suite of data, these include:

• UKCP Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes.
• The addition of a low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) to the UKCP Global (60 km) dataset.
• A set of European climate indices (jet stream, weather patterns and winter Atlantic pressure gradient)
• Soil moisture and water balance metrics

Further details on these releases can be found on the Project News page here.

Climate projections and visualisation for your area

You can find out more about climate change in your local area in this climate change visualisation tool.

This tool is a collaboration with the BBC. It combines our climate projections and records to visualise climate change in the UK.

• What will climate change look like near me?