UK Climate Projections (UKCP)

What are the UK Climate Projections (UKCP)?

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP) is a climate analysis tool that forms part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme. The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) support the UKCP.

Latest climate projections

UK Climate Projections headline findings

A summary of the most recent climate projections for the UK, including local, regional and global data.

• UK Climate Projections: Headline findings (PDF - 337kB)
• UK Climate Projections Science Overview Executive Summary (PDF - 884kB)

Summary material on the UKCP findings.

• UKCP18 slide set (PDF - 1.6MB)
• UKCP18 slide set with accompanying notes (PDF - 4.1MB)
• UKCP18: Climate change over land (PDF - 6.6MB)
• UKCP18: Marine climate change (PDF - 442kb)

UKCP Enhancements – the latest additions to the UKCP set of climate data

A set of new UKCP products are now available to use alongside the existing suite of data:

• The UKCP Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes as described in
  • Infographic [PDF - 1.5MB]
  • UKCP Factsheet - Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes [PDF - 832 kB]
  • UK Climate Projections: UKCP Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes [PDF - 3.5MB]
• The addition of a low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) to UKCP Global as described in
  • UKCP Factsheet: UKCP Global (60 km) - Low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) (PDF - 1.2MB) 

Additional information is also available for those users who wish to understand the behaviour of UKCP climate models:

• A set of European climate indices, representing the large scale drivers of UK weather and climate within UKCP Global as described in
  • UKCP Factsheet on Jet Stream Position and Strength [PDF - 1.2MB]
  • UKCP Factsheet on Winter Atlantic Pressure Gradient [PDF - 1.4MB]
  • UKCP Factsheet on Weather Patterns [PDF - 1.6MB]
• Factsheet on soil moisture and water balance metrics [PDF - 1.3MB]
• A technical report on the role of internal variability in the UKCP Global models [PDF - 2.7MB]

For further details, see the announcement on the Project News page.

Local climate projections and visualisation

You can find out more about climate change in your local area in this climate change visualisation tool.

This tool is a collaboration with the BBC. It combines our climate projections and records to visualise climate change in the UK.

• What will climate change look like near me?