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UK Climate Projections

UK Climate Projections is a climate analysis tool that forms part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme which is supported by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).

Building on the success of UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09), a new project, called UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), is set to deliver a major upgrade to the range of UK climate projection tools designed to help decision-makers assess their risk exposure to climate.

UKCP18 will use cutting-edge climate science to provide updated observations and climate change projections out to 2100 in the UK and globally. The project will build upon the current set of projections (UKCP09) to provide the most up-to date assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st century. 

UKCP18 will update the probabilistic projections over land and provide a set of high-resolution spatially-coherent future climate projections for the globe at 60km scale and for the UK at 12km scale. The 12km climate model will be further downscaled to a level previously only used for short-term weather forecasts allowing realistic simulation of high impact events such as localised heavy rainfall in summer. The marine projections will also be updated for sea-level rise and storm surge. 

This project will equip the UK with information to help adapt to the challenges and opportunities of climate change. 

Access to UKCP09 is changing from December 2018. Find out how this affects you here.

Updates will be posted to this webpage as the project progresses but you can read more in the project technical overview or other documents on this page or you can email us to ask a question.

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