Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2013-14

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
01S 27-28 October 30/30 knots 01S did not attain tropical storm status.
Amara (03S) 16-23 December 130/110 knots Track forecast errors were large due to a failure to predict the recurvature of this storm.
Bejisa (06S) 29 December-05 January 110/90 knots There was a slow and left-of-track bias for this storm which resulted in large track forecast errors.
Colin (08S) 09-15 January 115/100 knots There was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but errors were low for this storm.
Deliwe (09S) 16-18 January 45/45 knots Deliwe was short-lived and track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.
Edilson (13S) 05-08 February 55/55 knots Short period forecast tracks were good, but a slow bias resulted in large longer lead time errors.
Fobane (14S) 06-14 February 60/60 knots Track forecast errors for this storm were low compared to last season's average. The various turns in the storm's motion were well predicted.
Guito (15S) 18-22 February 65/60 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this storm.
Hellen (21S) 28 March-01 April 130/125 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a northwards bias.
Ivanoe (22S) 04-06 April 45/50 knots Forecasts had a slow bias resulting in errors above last season's average.
Tropical cyclone names

South-West Indian observed tracks in 2013-14

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Alessia (02S) 22-27 November 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's avelues for this storm.
Bruce (04S) 17-24 December 140/125 knots Track errors were mostly quite close to to last season's average for this storm. There was a slight bias towards recurving the storm too soon.
Christine (05S) 28-31 December 85/85 knots Christine only lasted a couple of days, but track forecast errors were low.
Dylan (11P) 29-31 January 55/55 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this storm
Edna (12P) 01-05 February 50/50 knots Edna was a tropical storm in two phases. Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average.
Fletcher (-) 03-05 February -/35 knots Fletcher was a minimal tropical storm according to the Bureau of Meteorology only and no forecasts were verified.
Gillian (17P) 08-25 March 140/110 knots Gillian formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria then weakened to a remnant low for many days before reforming in the South Indian Ocean. Track forecast errors were mixed. The reformation was well predicted, but there was a right of track bias in latter forecasts.
Hadi (19P) 09-11 March 40/40 knots Only a few forecasts were verified for this storm and track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Ita (23P) 04-14 April 135/115 knots Although some forecasts did not fully recurve Cyclone Ita, the majority of forecasts handled the track and in particular landfall well. Thus track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Jack (24S) 18-22 April 90/80 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in errors above last season's average.
Tropical cyclone names

 

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ian (07P) 05-14 January 125/110 knots Track forecast errors at short lead times were near to or below last season's average. However, a failure to predict the rapid movement to higher latitudes in early forecasts resulted in large forecast errors at long lead times.
June (10P) 17-19 January 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Kofi (16P) 28 February-04 March 50/55 knots The track of this storm was fairly well predicted although errors were a little above last season's average.
Lusi (18P) 09-13 March 70/80 knots There was a left of track bias in forecasts for this storm which resulted in errors above last season's average.
Mike (20P) 19 March 35/35 knots Mike was a short-lived storm and only one forecast was verified.

Tropical cyclone names


Western Australian observed tracks in 2013-14

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2013-14

 

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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