Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2014-15

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Adjali (01S) 16-19 November 986 mb, 60/55 knots Track forecast errors were mostly a little higher than last season's average.
02S 28-29 November 997 mb, 35/30 knots No forecasts were verified for this short-lived storm.
Bansi (05S) 10-18 January 923 mb, 130/120 knots At all but the longest lead times track errors were well below last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were very high.
Chedza (06S) 16-19 January 980 mb, 50/55 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but high at longer lead times.
Diamondra (08S) 26-30 January 988 mb, 45/45 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Eunice (09S) 27 January-02 February 900 mb, 140/130 knots Eunice was well predicted by the model with track forecast errors below last season's average at all but the longest lead time.
Fundi (11S) 06-08 February 988 mb, 40/40 knots Fundi was relatively short-lived and forecast errors were mostly low.
Glenda (14S) 24-28 February 979 mb, 55/45 knots Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores high for this storm.
15S 05-07 March 996 mb, 35/30 knots Track errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Haliba (16S) 08-10 March 993 mb, 40/40 knots Haliba was a short-lived storm and track errors were below last season's average.
Ikola (21S) 05-08 April 951 mb, 100/95 knots Early forecasts had a slow bias resulting in some above-average forecast errors.
Joalane (22S) 06-13 April 970 mb, 90/80 knots There was a westwards bias in some early forecasts, but overall track forecast errors were below last season's average.
South-west Indian tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2014-15

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Bakung (03S) 11-13 December - mb, 40/50 knots Very few forecasts were verified, but track errors were low.
Kate (04S) 24-31 December 947 mb, 105/95 knots Despite a marked left-of-track bias, errors for this storm were lower than last season's average.
Lam (12P) 16-20 February 943 mb, 100/100 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Marcia (13P) 16-21 February 929 mb, 115/110 knots Although the rapid intensification of Marcia was not well predicted, the track, including the sharp turn just a few hours before landfall, were well predicted by the model. Track errors were very low and skill scores were exceptionally high.
Nathan (18P) 10-24 March 963 mb, 90/90 knots Nathan was a long-lived storm with a complex track including a loop in the Coral Sea. The initial 180 degree turn was well predicted. However, a few forecasts did not predict the second 180 degree turn. Thereafter predictions of landfall over northern Australia were good. Thus short lead time forecast errors were very low and skill scores high. Longer lead time errors were higher, but only at the longest lead times exceeded last season's mean errors for this region.
Olwyn (19S) 11-14 March 960 mb, 85/80 knots Track forecast errors for Olwyn were low.
Quang (24S) 28 April-01 May 945 mb, 115/105 knots There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in some track forecast errors being above last season's average.
Raquel (25P) 30 June - 05 July 996 mb, 45/40 kots Track forecast errors were near to or above last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were very high.
Australian tropical cyclone names

Indonesian tropical cyclone names

Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Niko (07P) 20-24 January 982 mb, 55/55 knots Due to a slow bias track errors were above last season's average.
Ola (10P) 30 January-03 February 965 mb, 80/80 knots Due to a right-of-track bias track errors were above last season's average.
Pam (17P) 09-15 March 896 mb, 145/135 knots Forecasts for Cyclone Pam initially had a left-of-track bias. However, at lead times of 60 hours and less, the track across Vanuatu was well predicted. Thus, short lead time track errors were low and skill scores high. At longer lead times, track errors were above last season's average.
Reuben (20P) 21-23 March 990 mb, 45/40 knots Reuben was a short lived storm. Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.
Solo (23P) 10-12 April 985 mb, 55/55 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average due to a slow bias.

Fiji tropical cyclone names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2014-15

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2014-15

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Bapo (01T) 06-08 February 992 mb, -/35 knots Bapo was a tropical storm for about a day.
Cari (02T) 10-12 March 1000 mb, -/35 knots Cari was briefly designated a subtropical storm and no forecasts were verified.

South Atlantic tropical cyclone names

South Atlantic observed tracks 2014-15

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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