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are very likely across most of these areas. 3-Month Outlook October to December - Temperature Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Left: Middle East and North Africa Right: Caribbean region Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Global: June to March Overview 3 MENA, Caribbean

A hybrid physical-ML model? Ian Boutle, Mohit Dalvi, José Rodríguez, Martin Willett, Stephen Haddad, Tom Melvin, Matthew Chantry (ECMWF), Cyril Morcrette, Simon Vosper www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2025, Met Office Where we are currently • AI/ML models are very fast • They are becoming

Temperatures will remain very high for much of the UK over the next few days, likely peaking during the period Wednesday to Saturday with 32 to 33°C likely across parts of the south and southeast, though there’s an increasing signal for a thundery breakdown for some. There’s a chance the highest

which were very wet during August. Parts of the Caribbean Region were wet during July and August before widely dry conditions were observed in September. Very dry conditions have prevailed across Venezuela, Guyana and much of Colombia. Outlook: During late autumn and into winter, rainfall amounts

the end of the West African Monsoon in October, parts of West Africa remained wet or very wet during November. In November and December, as seasonal rains shifted south across the continent, parts of central, eastern and southern Africa were drier than normal, however, South Africa, DRC, parts of Uganda

, with the 0th percentile being the driest and the 100th percentile being the wettest in the 1981-2010 climatology. Green and dark green shading represent values above the 80th (Wet) and 90th (Very Wet) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark brown indicate rainfall below the 20th (Dry

; cold conditions were observed in large parts of China in July. Outlook: Warmer than normal conditions are likely or very likely across nearly all of Asia, increasing the risk of heatwaves and related impacts for many parts. 3-Month Outlook September to November - Temperature Much More Likely Below

and Kyrgyzstan were wet or very wet in November. These areas as well as Afghanistan has near or below normal precipitation in December and January. Outlook: Wetter than normal likely across Vietnam and much of the Southeast Asia Peninsular, as well as Sri Lanka and southern parts of India. Rainfall

identical to that recorded in 2007 and very close also to that of 2016. It is 2.07 million square km below the 1981-2010 average and 0.77 million square km above the record low extent of 3.39 million square km, which occurred in 2012. It is very close to the long-term linear trend in September minima, which

for bringing this scheme to the attention of partners listening to this webinar. As you say, the Met Office very much supports and is well engaged with this scheme, and we will look into the potential to explore risk/resilience in this space.  Updated chance of 40°C shows that UKCP18 did not adequately