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Provisional statistics for 1-18 July show that the UK has been split over the month so far, with the south east warmer than average and the north west cooler than average.

be explained by the presence of high pressure over the southern half of the UK for much of the month so far, allowing relatively stable conditions in this region. In the north west however, less protection was offered against low pressure systems that have led to wetter and cooler conditions in the north

The charts show tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean since 1988-89 and tracks for the most recent completed seasons.

Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - south-west Indian Ocean

The graphs below show a variety of measures of forecast errors and forecast skill for the Met Office global model forecasts of tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian region (west of 90 degrees east). For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

The charts show tropical cyclone activity in the North-West Pacific Ocean since 1988 and tracks for the most recent completed seasons.

, with a Level 2 Alert in place for the South West and East Midlands, with a Level 1 Alert for the West Midlands and northern England. Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at the UK Health Security Agency, said: “Temperatures are forecast to reach 30°C in some parts of the south

Tuesday will bring a continuation of changeable conditions across western parts of the UK, with cloud and outbreaks of rain or drizzle moving eastwards through the morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected over west-facing high ground, particularly across Wales, northern England, and southwest

developing fairly widely. Those could develop across even as far north as northwest England into southwest Scotland throughout the day. “But the focus for the heaviest ones really is from London through the Midlands up into Wales northern coasts of the West Country. They are going to be hit and miss

the UK, with more than 200% of average across the west of Northern Ireland, Lancashire, Merseyside and the Manchester area and parts of Devon, Dorset and Wiltshire. The UK overall rainfall total was 170% of average overall, making this provisionally the wettest July since 2009 and sixth wettest July

, and an area of rain over the north moved steadily southwards, becoming more showery. The 2nd began chilly in the south, with fog slow to clear in the Midlands; there was sunshine, but with showers all day over the south-west and developing elsewhere during the afternoon. The 3rd was mainly cloudy

and meteorologist, Craig Snell, said: “We could potentially see a greater chance of seeing some showers moving in from the North Sea. But with high pressure still in charge for most of us, it should remain dry. "There could be some showers potentially moving as far west as the Midlands as the day