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Advancing tropical cyclone forecasts - WCSSP case study

for tropical cyclones could significantly help decision makers and emergency management authorities improve preparedness ahead of the tropical cyclone season by providing insights into the number of cyclones that may occur in a region.  Through WCSSP Southeast Asia, researchers from institutes

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variability, models are in fairly good agreement in predicting a slight increase in the likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across central Asia and drier than normal conditions across parts of southeast Asia; however there is an increased likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across parts

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and Southeast Asia. This is consistent with the warming observed in the past decade. Below normal temperatures are likely for southern Australia, parts of mainland Southeast Asia and parts of Peru and Ecuador. 3-Month Outlook October to December - Temperature Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Very

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wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Global: July to April Overview 6 Current Status Current Status maps MENA – Middle East

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), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).” For the next three months, large parts of southern Asia, Australasia, Central America, northern parts of South America, along with southern parts of the Caribbean are likely to be wetter than normal

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areas are likely or very likely to experience warmer than normal conditions through the next three months. The main exceptions over parts of Africa and southern Asia, mainly India, owing to likely active monsoon seasons. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More

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Territories. It is likely to be wetter than normal in Guyana. Tropical Cyclone outlook: The Atlantic Tropical Cyclone season is now near its peak with seven named storms (up to 22 nd Sept). September typically sees peak activity with the season continuing through October and November before ending

The North Atlantic Oscillation

, northern Asia and South-East North America, and lower than normal in North Africa, North-East Canada and southern Greenland. The patterns for precipitation (rainfall, snowfall) are more localised, with an increased chance of higher rainfall in northwest Europe and lower rainfall in southern Europe

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three months, large parts of southern Asia, Australasia, Central America, northern parts of South America, along with southern parts of the Caribbean are likely to be wetter than normal. Meanwhile, large swathes of Africa and the Middle East are likely to be drier than normal. Below Normal Near

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El Niño fully develop, then the chance of heatwaves, drought and wildfire increases across parts of southern and southeast Asia and Australia, and wetter than normal conditions may be experienced across parts of East Africa, central Asia and the Middle East. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – The Indian

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