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warnings UK Storm Centre Seasonal advice Maps & charts Maps & charts UK forecast UK weather map Cloud cover map Precipitation map Lightning map Rainfall map Temperature map Wind map Wind gust map Surface pressure charts All countries Climate Climate Climate explained What is climate change? Causes

warnings UK Storm Centre Seasonal advice Maps & charts Maps & charts UK forecast UK weather map Cloud cover map Precipitation map Lightning map Rainfall map Temperature map Wind map Wind gust map Surface pressure charts All countries Climate Climate Climate explained What is climate change? Causes

warnings UK Storm Centre Seasonal advice Maps & charts Maps & charts UK forecast UK weather map Cloud cover map Precipitation map Lightning map Rainfall map Temperature map Wind map Wind gust map Surface pressure charts All countries Climate Climate Climate explained What is climate change? Causes

warnings UK Storm Centre Seasonal advice Maps & charts Maps & charts UK forecast UK weather map Cloud cover map Precipitation map Lightning map Rainfall map Temperature map Wind map Wind gust map Surface pressure charts All countries Climate Climate Climate explained What is climate change? Causes

) (8) Figure 1 – Change in 1979-2018 September Arctic sea ice extent (9) 1 - The IPCC AR5 report (9) defines ’nearly ice free’ conditions in summer as having a sea ice extent of less than 1 million square km in September for at least 5 consecutive years. How likely is such a threshold to be crossed

temperatures were to level out sea ice extent would stabilise 5, 8 . Figure 1. Change in 1979-2018 September Arctic sea ice extent. *The IPCC AR5 report 9 defines ’nearly ice free’ conditions in summer as having a sea ice extent of less than 1 million square km in September for at least 5 consecutive

) (8) Figure 1 – Change in 1979-2018 September Arctic sea ice extent (9) 1 - The IPCC AR5 report (9) defines ’nearly ice free’ conditions in summer as having a sea ice extent of less than 1 million square km in September for at least 5 consecutive years. How likely is such a threshold to be crossed

warnings UK Storm Centre Seasonal advice Maps & charts Maps & charts UK forecast UK weather map Cloud cover map Precipitation map Lightning map Rainfall map Temperature map Wind map Wind gust map Surface pressure charts All countries Climate Climate Climate explained What is climate change? Causes

, defined as hours with at least 0.1mm/h, in summer. Fig 13. Future changes in (top) mean and (bottom) 99 th percentile of hourly precipitation in winter. Shown are responses (%) for (left) RCM, (centre left) original UKCP CPM and (centre) test CPM with graupel code error fixed (CPM_fix

communication chains with the National Disaster Management Centre to ensure the warning messages reach their area and that appropriate actions can be taken. Damage caused by cyclone Idai in Mozambique, 2019. Credit: Denis Onyodi: IFRC/DRK/Climate Centre Outreach workshop at East London, Eastern Cape