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category which observation fell into) • Point averages for days 1 & 2 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 3 & 4, suggesting forecasts perform better than reference • But CIs cross no-skill line so no statistically significant evidence that forecasts outperform reference in predicting max daily flare

and Buxton, Derbyshire. While lying snow is of course not unusual in mid-winter, it nevertheless contributed to the ongoing weather-related impacts from storm Christoph. Author: Mike Kendon, Met Office National Climate Information Centre Last updated 24/01/2021

the pdfs of UK average warming that lie behind the regional changes featured in this document. For scenarios and time periods in which pdfs of projected UK warming lie between these two distributions in their ranges of response, the corresponding regional changes are likely to lie between those

July–December 2005). PDF: Probability that the number of tropical storms will lie within given ranges The predicted probability of exceeding the number of storms observed during July–December • 2009 (9 storms) is 100.0%, compared to a climate chance of 60.9%. • 2008 (15 storms) is 95.1% compared

Introduction At the heart of the Unified Model (UM) lies its dynamical core, that part of the model responsible for solving the equations of large-scale fluid flow in the atmosphere on the model’s discrete mesh. One component of this dynamical core, which just by itself is computationally very

of Wight), while bands of rain and showers, some wintry in the north, and isolated thunderstorms crossed the country through the day, Copley (Durham) reporting 11 cm of lying snow. After a fine start to the 19th, with just a few isolated showers over the north-west, rain, sleet and snow spread quickly

. The 27th began very windy, with blustery showers, wintry at times with rain, sleet and snow, coalescing occasionally into longer spells of precipitation, Middleton Hillside (Derbyshire) recording 17 cm of lying snow; the showers began to die away from western areas with sunny spells developing here

be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. • We cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily with dynamic ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. • The estimate for low

, shows deposited snow as white, the same colour as the clouds which are also present in this picture. The lower image shows a composite that makes use of some different near-infrared channels where the solar radiation is absorbed strongly by the lying snow, producing a characteristic red colour

evaporating back to the atmosphere where it can form as clouds and re-fall as rain again. In fact, the behaviour of trees and plants can control the amount of water being evaporated and therefore the amount of rain which can subsequently fall. The reason lies in the tiny openings on the leaves