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(SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific remain indicative on an ongoing El Niño event. Now past its peak, the current El Niño event is likely to weaken further with a transition to ENSOneutral very likely (83%) April-June. There is an increasing chance (62%) of a transition to La Niña in June-August. El

in January. Outlook: Consistent with a warming climate, warmer than normal conditions are likely or very likely across most areas. However, there are some exceptions across parts of East Africa and the Sahel where below normal is likely and this coincides with a wetter than normal forecast. 3-Month Outlook

, the south of England will be very warm or hot this weekend and into next week. Daytime temperatures will widely be in the mid to high 20°C’s with some central and southeastern parts reaching the low 30°C’s. It will also feel warm and humid overnight. “Looking ahead to next week, it’s likely

to be well below the record-breaking temperatures we saw in mid-July.  “As the high pressure builds there is very little meaningful rain in the forecast, especially in those areas in the south of England, which experienced very dry conditions last month. Elsewhere in the UK, such as in northern England

. It was also a relatively dry year, particularly across the north of the UK, with June a very dry month in the south. This was a very sunny year, particularly May, June and July. Notable extreme events during the year included a spell of severe winter weather in late February and early March. The Met Office

It will be a very warm or hot day for many today (Wednesday) with temperatures of 31°C possible in the southeast, which would be the highest of the year so far. Elsewhere, temperatures are likely to be higher than yesterday, with mid-to-high 20s Celsius for the rest of England and Wales

and heavy rain across the UK this weekend and we have issued a range of severe weather warnings giving people time to prepare for potential impacts of the storm. “Winds will increase through Saturday across Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and Wales, before turning very windy across the rest

caused widespread flash-flooding and disruption to the road and rail networks, with Falkirk, Fife, Perth, Edinburgh and the Aberdeenshire area all affected by flashflooding. Several schools were closed across Aberdeenshire, and there were reports of lightning strikes. The very heavy rain from

Nowcasting is a method used for very short-range forecasting. Directly connected to observed weather, it involves mapping the current weather and using its estimated speed and the movement of its direction to carry out forecasts with a lead time of zero to six hours. The technique is considered

Storms are very complex systems that play an important role in the transport of heat and energy across the world. Therefore, they can be affected by small changes in regional and global patterns. Some influences on storm activity that are likely to be affected by climate change are: Sea surface