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- Rainfall El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – Although now declining, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific remain indicative on an ongoing El Niño event. Now past its peak, the current El Niño event is likely to weaken further with a transition to ENSOneutral very likely (83

while northern Libya was very wet in November and December before returning to near-normal in January. The Caribbean and British Overseas Territories were either dry or had near-normal rainfall over the last three months, the exception being Haiti which was very wet in December. Outlook: Over

over the last three months. The exceptions being of Turkey, Tunisia, parts of Algeria and Morocco, which were wet or very wet in June. In the Caribbean, dry or very dry conditions were observed in June, returning to near-normal in July and August. Outlook: Over the next three months it is likely

of very wet conditions. The rest of North Africa has been mainly dry. Haiti and Guyana have also seen wet conditions through August, Haiti in particular with rainfall exacerbated by the passages of Tropical Cyclones Fred and Grace in quick succession. Outlook: Below normal rainfall is likely across

May 2021 The averaging period used for the following assessment was 1981-2010. May began very unsettled and unseasonably cold, with frosts in many places; it became less cold after the first week but continued with frequent rain or showers for most areas. The UK experienced a number of deep low

of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry) are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions. Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years. Important Long-range forecasts are unlike weather forecasts

with atmosphere and oceanic conditions dating from between 21 August and 10 September 2020. Figure 1.1: Predicted probabilities for October-November-December 2020 rainfall from the statistical and dynamical forecasts. Probabilities are for 5 quintile categories referred to as: very dry, dry, average, wet and very

Office PWS team. The Met Office are undertaking work to better understand the performance, and the Citizen Engagement Strategy is anticipated to bring a more targeted approach to making improvements in these areas over upcoming years. Whilst targets were only very narrowly missed there is concern

based just five minutes away at Great Moor House where we share our archive repositories with Devon Heritage Centre. We are a national library and archive and are open to everyone with an interest in weather and climate. The Met Office takes the privacy of its customers very seriously. Our privacy

Seasonal Assessment – Winter 2024 The following represents a provisional assessment of the weather experienced across the UK during Winter 2024 (December 2023, January and February 2024) and how it compares with the 1991 to 2020 average. The winter has been milder than average overall, but very