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this is more difficult, increasing health risk to humans. Analysis of the new data has shown that global annual / seasonal mean of maximum daily wet bulb temperature, a measure of humidity, has increased by around 0.2°C each decade between 1973-2022. This rate of change is even higher when looking

series of Niño3.4 indices for all initialised forecasts relative to ERSST IV. Prediction of Regional Impacts Based on Nov0 initialised forecasts: Model predicts overall dry conditions across Australia during 1 st (Y0) and 2 nd (Y+1) wet-season of multi-year El Nino events but underestimates the rainfall

potentially raising the average global temperature; very likely to a new global record this year or next. There are anticipated impacts in regions adjacent to the Pacific; notably southeast Asia and eastern Australia, where we could see drier than average conditions which could exacerbate wildfire risk

/maproom/. Additional Information: ^Note: In March western Nigeria had normal rainfall but it was Very Wet in the east, whilst the dry season continued in the north. ^^Note: In April, northern Nigeria was Very Wet and western Cameroon Very Dry. * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month

10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Additional Information: 1. Note: Hot in the west, Cold in the east 2. Note: Normal, but Hot in the north and the south 3. Note: Normal, but Very Wet in the west 4. Note: Normal, but dry in the far southwest and Very Wet in the east 5. Note: Hot

1991/92 to 2020/21. Source: Met Office HadUK-Grid and Met Éireann’s gridded precipitation datasets. Climate change also had a strong influence on autumn and winter total rainfall. In a pre-industrial climate, wet periods such as the 2023-24 October-March season had an estimated return period of 1

Kenya, western Tanzania and parts of Malawi and Zambia were wetter than normal, with more mixed conditions in December. 3-Month Outlook February to April - Rainfall Outlook: The development of La Niña usually increases slightly the chance of a wetter than normal season across parts of southern Africa

the month (dry season). Additional Information: (1) Note: Normal or cold in the north, hot in the south (2) Note: Normal in the northeast (3) Note: Large variations across the country (4) Note: Warm or hot in the southwest, cool to normal in the northeast (5) Note: Normal in the west, very wet

in the northeast (2) Note: Wet in the far west and dry in parts of the east, else normal (3) Note: Normal, but dry in the west * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Africa: March to December Current Status 12 Current Status – Central Africa

winter. Each phase describes sea surface temperature and accompanying atmospheric circulation patterns over the tropical Pacific Ocean.   Global weather impacts UK weather impacts ENSO can affect weather around the world, changing the chances of floods, drought, heatwaves and cold seasons