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. between a 2% and 5% chance of occurring in any decade). What other factors contribute to future changes in tropical cyclone risks? One way in which future changes in tropical cyclone risks could affect communities, infrastructure and ecosystems in low-lying coastal areas is through changes

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

is a single value larger than the mean, how often does a sample of 10 pixels in a row have a variance larger than a certain threshold, how often do 10 pixels in a row lie above the median, etc. At each step, some measurements are censored because they show such high individual deviations or such high

suggests the front will lie across northern England and north Wales by Saturday night, but ensemble forecasts show some variation. It could sit further north or south, so staying up to date with the latest forecast will be important if you have weekend plans. READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Supercells

in Kerala lies almost submerged after heavy rainfall led to extensive flooding in 2018. Picture: Shutterstock Climate attribution science plays a part in the evidence base needed in this complex area, and here the Met Office’s Dr Fraser Lott – a Climate Monitoring and Attribution Scientist – explains

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

warnings in force on a particular day appear in vertical stack formation with red issues on top, followed by amber then yellow. Each warning displays its weather colour, category and validity period, followed by the weather headline and what to expect sections. Beneath these lies a link

2018. All warnings in force on a particular day appear in vertical stack formation with red issues on top, followed by amber then yellow. Each warning displays its weather colour, category and validity period, followed by the weather headline and what to expect sections. Beneath these lies a link

these lies a link to the further details section which includes the risk matrix and a listing of those regions/countries and county authorities lying wholly or partly within the warning area. Email version The majority of emergency responders receive severe weather warnings via email or text message. Figure

range on 4 out of 7 occasions. Each time, the observed number of tropical storms was higher than predicted by the multi-model. It should first be highlighted that the observed number of tropical storms in a given year is, by definition, expected to lie within the 70% prediction interval approximately