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separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution analysis of extreme heatwaves in the reference region. 2 Figure 2

time-steps) and even filtered to only show features that lie between a particular vertical range. • Movement and evolution of features with time can be seen SIGWX forecasts for a particular validity time will be available with a longer lead time and using more up to date model data. NEW WAFS SIGWX

of the underlying model distributions. There may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside the 5th to 95th percentile range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. We cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily with dynamic ice discharge

is a hurricane not a hurricane? Author: Press Office 22 August 2025 Hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, are among the most powerful and destructive weather systems on Earth. But not every swirling storm over the ocean qualifies as a hurricane. So, when is a hurricane not a hurricane? The answer lies in how

rain affects larger areas and is harder to avoid. Formation and cloud types The key difference between rain and showers lies in the cloud types and the processes that form them. Rain from weather fronts is produced through mass ascent, where one body of air is lifted by another. As the lifted air

question of whether it will be a white or not. Wintry showers are expected in the north which could technically make it a white Christmas, as we only need to see a single snowflake falling, but any lying snow will probably be confined to the mountains of Scotland. Elsewhere, showers are likely

16.3 1.2 67.2 60 185.9 116 Scotland 14.6 1.3 99.9 83 153.3 114 Northern Ireland 15.9 1.4 66.8 67 138.7 102 How do we know when records are broken?  The answer lies in a Met Office dataset that's been quietly mapping our weather history for around the last two centuries. Read: How do we know when weather records are broken?  Read: People spend over two days a year talking about the weather   

representation of snow, cloud, and drier soils in Local 2.2km Cold winter days are too cold in the RCM especially in the north, with biases improved in CPM. Differences related to snow scheme, with more lying snow in RCM. Hot summer days are too cold in RCM in north, and too hot in CPM in south. Drier

of just 3.3 °C on the 1st and 3 cm of lying snow on the 2nd. A belt of rain spread across the south overnight 1st/2nd, clearing the south-east on the 2nd, while otherwise the 2nd and 3rd were days of sunshine and showers. An area of more persistent rain spread across central and southern counties

of heavy rain from the Bristol Channel to the south-east moved slowly northwards on the 14th, again giving sleet and snow on high ground with 1 cm of lying snow at Cirencester (Gloucestershire). 15th to 21st This period was generally quieter with temperatures remaining below average. Bands of rain