Met Office 10-Day Trend: Heat to peak into next week

In this week’s 10-Day Trend, we explore the evolving pattern of heat, humidity, and high pressure, and what it means for the days ahead.

A new spell of heat – but not for everyone

Another spell of heat is on the way, but unlike the previous heatwave, this one is expected to be more localised. The jet stream, which has been flowing in a fairly typical west-to-east pattern across the Atlantic, is beginning to buckle. This buckling, or troughing, is being driven by stronger upper-level winds over North America, which are pushing the jet stream southwards and creating a more north-south orientation by the time it reaches the UK.

This shift allows high pressure to build from the south and drift eastwards, drawing up warmer air from the continent. As a result, temperatures are expected to rise through Sunday and into Monday, with Monday likely to be the peak of the heat. However, a cold front is lurking to the west, and cooler air is not far behind.

Some places could reach heatwave criteria over the coming few days 🥵

Here are your forecast highs for this weekend 👇 pic.twitter.com/hTuMwjZ7H3

— Met Office (@metoffice) June 25, 2025

Short-term outlook: Humid then fresher

Before the heat builds, Thursday will bring a more unsettled picture. Weather fronts will cross the country, bringing cloud and outbreaks of rain. It will be a warm and humid start in the south, but as the rain clears eastwards, many areas will brighten up with good spells of sunshine. Temperatures will reach the mid-20s in places, though it will feel fresher by the end of the day.

By Thursday evening and into Friday, another weather system will approach from the west, bringing heavy and persistent rain to Northern Ireland and western Scotland. This rain will linger into Friday, with some heavy bursts and brisk winds helping to push the rain up over hills, increasing rainfall totals in northwestern areas.

The weekend: A weather front in focus

Saturday’s weather will be dominated by a cold front that separates warm, humid air in the south from cooler, fresher conditions in the north. This front will be a key player over the weekend, with its exact position determining the weather for many.

As the front pushes south, it will weaken but still bring cloud and some outbreaks of rain. Temperatures will vary significantly, East Anglia and the southeast could see highs close to 30°C, while the far northwest may only reach 14-15°C with brisk winds.

The Met Office model suggests the front will lie across northern England and north Wales by Saturday night, but ensemble forecasts show some variation. It could sit further north or south, so staying up to date with the latest forecast will be important if you have weekend plans.

READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Supercells, jet streams and a finely balanced forecast

Sunday and Monday: Heat peaks

By Sunday, the front may drift back north slightly, bringing damp conditions to parts of Northern Ireland and northern Britain. Meanwhile, heat will build across the south, with temperatures widely into the mid-20s in south Wales and southwest England, and over 30°C in eastern England.

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of this spell, with highs of 32-34°C possible in southeast England, including London and Cambridge. Scotland and Northern Ireland will also feel warmer than on Sunday as the warm air spreads further north.

However, this heat will be short-lived. A cold front is expected to move across the country Monday night into Tuesday, bringing cooler air from the Atlantic. The timing of this front is uncertain, some models suggest it may clear the heat quickly, while others hold it back, allowing one more hot day in the southeast on Tuesday, potentially seeing temperatures of 31-32°C.

Mid to late next week: High pressure returns

As we move into the second half of next week, the trend is for higher pressure to build once again. Probability plots show a greater than 50% chance of a more settled, blocking pattern developing by Wednesday and Thursday, with the Azores High extending across the UK.

This is supported by ensemble forecasts, which show the three most likely scenarios for Wednesday all featuring an anticyclone, whether centred to the west, directly over the UK, or to the southwest. This suggests a return to drier, more settled conditions.

By Thursday and Friday, high pressure is expected to remain close to the UK. The exact weather will depend on the position and flow around the high, but it should be dry and fine. The earlier heat will likely have eased, but it won’t be far away, hot air will still be present across France, and a slight shift in the high could allow it to return to southern parts of the UK.

The next 10 days will bring a mix of summer weather types. A brief spell of heat will build into early next week, peaking on Monday and possibly lingering into Tuesday in the southeast. This will be followed by a cold front bringing cooler, fresher air. From midweek onwards, high pressure is likely to dominate, bringing dry, sunny, and pleasantly warm conditions for many as we head into July.

Another heatwave in places this weekend but not for all. Most areas will have sunny spells next week.

Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin. pic.twitter.com/V5hfO8epUC

— Met Office (@metoffice) June 25, 2025

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.