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@ <1000km scale smoothed out. 39 daily initialisations, each run 48hrs 3 x 39 x 2 = 234 CP model days 1.5km grid, explicit convection (RAL3.2) JULES land, SM from 10 year CP run Sensitivty experiments - spectra [email protected] Plot ratio of mean percentage of total spectral power at given length

with a range of 'trigger' thresholds (triangles) are plotted. The vertical axis gives the hit rate, defined as the number of times the event was forecast (with probability above a certain threshold) and later observed to occur. The hit rate is expressed as a ratio of the total number of occasions on which

to be downgraded to an ex-tropical system by Tuesday evening as it continues east over the cool waters of the North Atlantic. However, the remnants of the system plays a background role in some of the rainfall totals we may see on Wednesday and Thursday.  Jason Kelly explained: “While Ernesto itself will have

 facts.  The North Atlantic tropical storm season usually runs from June to November. The degree of activity over the whole season varies from year to year and is measured in several ways.  Total number of tropical storms. The number of named tropical cyclones with winds of at least 39 mph observed

.  This is reflected in our uncertainty estimates. Estimates from the Global Carbon Budget suggest that although fossil fuel emissions increased in 2018 compared to 2017, emissions from land use change declined by approximately the same amount. Therefore the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions did

observations (black), our statistical reconstructions and past forecasts (blue) and 2020 forecast (red). The forecast uncertainty range based on the SST forecast (solid red line) is ± 2 standard deviations. Uncertainty in the 2019 emissions increases the total uncertainty slightly (dashed red line

spring on record. Mean temperatures for spring were just ahead of the previous record of 2024, whilst the record sunshine hours surpassed those of the Covid spring of 2020. The late burst of Atlantic mobility was sufficient to bring monthly rainfall totals across parts of the north Midlands, northwest

Dry weather during 2003 Rainfall totals have generally been below average for most of the year, however, there have been exceptions. May, June and July have been close to or above average, whilst August and September have been exceptionally dry in many areas. October has also seen below-average

on the date shown Highest rainfall  between 2100 UTC on the previous day to 2100 UTC on the date shown Sunniest between 2100 UTC on the previous day to 2100 UTC on the date shown The information provided uses the initial data as it is received; observations are subject to a final quality control afterwards. This is particularly the case for rainfall totals during snow events.

. This was particularly unwelcome following the wet October when large areas of central and eastern England, eastern Scotland, the east of Northern Ireland parts of the South Coast recorded well over twice the monthly average rainfall. The charts below show daily rainfall totals for the first three days