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of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; F. E. L. Otto—Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; S. Wilson and R. G. Jones—Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; M. R. Allen—Atmospheric, Oceanic

region (5˚S to 5˚N; 120˚W to 170˚W) often used to monitor El Niño/La Niña development), and predominantly cool anomalies in the Main Development Region (shown boxed – 10˚N to 20˚N; 20˚W to 60˚W) in the tropical North Atlantic. The GloSea-predicted temporal evolution of tropical Pacific SST anomalies

in the tropical Pacific Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120°W–170°W). Predicted positive anomalies in the Niño.3.4 region indicated the development of El Niño type conditions, and this was supported by international consensus, co-ordinated by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). El Niño conditions and below