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Office 11 December 2023 Since the Paris Agreement at COP21 in December 2015, the 1.5°C target as a limit for global warming is much discussed, but why 1.5°C? Where did the 1.5°C target come from? The concept of identifying a threshold for climate change has existed for over 30 years. Article 2

office: 2 St. David’s Court, David Street, Leeds, LS11 5QA +44 (0)1663 767 857 djsresearch.co.uk JN7405 1 Introduction This report presents the findings from the 2020 Public Perception Survey. The main objective of the research is to provide key performance indicators for the Met Office’s Public

/29 S 19/29 SW 12/18 W 300 6/17 W 3/11 S 11/23 SW 12/25 SW 9/22 S 8/22 SW 5/14 W Glen 2/17 SW 3/17 SW 7/22 SW 8/23 SW 6/22 SW 5/21 SW 4/15 W Height (m) Temperature / Feels Like (°C) 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 1300 -1/-10 -2/-12 -2/-11 -2/-10 -3/-12 -3/-12 -4/-12 900 3/-4 1/-6 1/-6 2/-5

School of Earth and Environment INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Total Column Vapour Bimodality in Pan-Tropical km-Scale Models James Bassford John Marsham, Ben Maybee, Doug Parker With thanks to Leeds Dynamics Group and Met Office RMED Distribution of Atmospheric Moisture 2 Distribution

-4.5 to -4 under -4.5 -3.5 to -3 -4 to -3.5 -3 to -2.5 -2.5 to -2 -2 to -1.5 -1.5 to -1 -1 to -0.5 -0.5 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 -2.5 to -2 -3 to -2.5 -1.5 to -1 -2 to -1.5 -0.5 to 0 -1 to -0.5 0.5 to 1 0 to 0.5 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5 2.5 to 3 2 to 2.5 3.5 to 4 3 to 3.5

. September Monthly Averaged Extent Projection: (4.4 ± 0.9) × 10 6 km 2 Model: HadGEM3, Global Coupled Model 2.0 [Williams et al., 2015] Ice Component: CICE [Hunke and Lipscomb, 2010], Global Sea Ice 6.0 [Rae et al., 2015] Ocean Component: NEMO [Madec, 2008], Global Ocean 5.0 [Megann et al., 2014

-4.5 to -4 under -4.5 -3.5 to -3 -4 to -3.5 -3 to -2.5 -2.5 to -2 -2 to -1.5 -1.5 to -1 -1 to -0.5 -0.5 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 -2.5 to -2 -3 to -2.5 -1.5 to -1 -2 to -1.5 -0.5 to 0 -1 to -0.5 0.5 to 1 0 to 0.5 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5 2.5 to 3 2 to 2.5 3.5 to 4 3 to 3.5

-4.5 to -4 under -4.5 -3.5 to -3 -4 to -3.5 -3 to -2.5 -2.5 to -2 -2 to -1.5 -1.5 to -1 -1 to -0.5 -0.5 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 -2.5 to -2 -3 to -2.5 -1.5 to -1 -2 to -1.5 -0.5 to 0 -1 to -0.5 0.5 to 1 0 to 0.5 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5 2.5 to 3 2 to 2.5 3.5 to 4 3 to 3.5

-4.5 to -4 under -4.5 -3.5 to -3 -4 to -3.5 -3 to -2.5 -2.5 to -2 -2 to -1.5 -1.5 to -1 -1 to -0.5 -0.5 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 -2.5 to -2 -3 to -2.5 -1.5 to -1 -2 to -1.5 -0.5 to 0 -1 to -0.5 0.5 to 1 0 to 0.5 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5 2.5 to 3 2 to 2.5 3.5 to 4 3 to 3.5

-4.5 to -4 under -4.5 -3.5 to -3 -4 to -3.5 -3 to -2.5 -2.5 to -2 -2 to -1.5 -1.5 to -1 -1 to -0.5 -0.5 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 -2.5 to -2 -3 to -2.5 -1.5 to -1 -2 to -1.5 -0.5 to 0 -1 to -0.5 0.5 to 1 0 to 0.5 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5 2.5 to 3 2 to 2.5 3.5 to 4 3 to 3.5