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by averaging ensemble members starting from different initial states, while subjecting the model to the same external forcing, can the random sequence of internal variability be reduced enough to reveal the true model behavior, as pointed out also by Deser et al. (2014). The real power of large ensembles lies

(HPC). Although the PWS can be demonstrated to already represent a good return on investment for the UK taxpayer, strategies going forward should be looking to further increase this value. Four main areas where opportunities and risks lie are: � Improving forecast accuracy, through exploiting

% with a standard deviation of 9%. Applying this range, the PRECIS application in Bolivia lies within an acceptable error-range only with respect to temperature in the lowlands. The comparison has limited validity, because this study quantifies the difference between modeled and observed data by RMS