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it actually is). © Crown Copyright 2025 Met Office From the user perspective there is a problem though… High spread high epistemic uncertainty Low spread model agrees and high confidence Spread is desirable Too much spread no guidance undesirable Ensemble members follow control undesirable Sharp

.......................................................................................... 14 2.5 Reliability diagrams ................................................................................................... 15 2.6 Sharpness diagrams .................................................................................................. 16

in temperature and humidity. Air masses are separated by transition zones or boundaries that may be more sharply defined - these are called fronts. Air masses and weather fronts (Factsheet 10) 11. Interpreting weather charts On a weather chart, lines joining places with equal sea-level pressures are called

persistent rain on the 5th. It continued generally sunny and increasingly warm from the 7th to 9th, but with isolated sharp showers, some of which were thundery on the 9th, particularly in the north-west. 10th to 15th A northerly outbreak brought a spell of much cooler weather, and it was often cloudier

extent of 18.53 million sq km was recorded on 30th August. Extent has fallen sharply since, reaching 17.85 million sq km by 10th October. From this time of year onwards Antarctic sea ice extent tends to fall rapidly as the sun rises towards its peak in the Southern Hemisphere, hence it is very likely

. The figure shows our very latest forecasts for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The forecasts all indicate a sharp rise from the current neutral state to El Niño conditions (+0.5°C anomaly) by Summer this year. While there is still considerable uncertainty

annibynnol ac yn meithrin meddwl agored, cwestiynu a chwilfrydedd. *Mae Athroniaeth i Blant, neu P4C fel y’i gelwir yn fwy cyffredin, yn rhaglen sgiliau meddwl a ddatblygwyd gan Matthew Lipman ac Anne Sharp gyda’u cymdeithion yn y Sefydliad Hyrwyddo Athroniaeth i Blant (IAPC), Prifysgol Talaith Montclair

was farther east than predicted. Alfred (18P) 22 February - 08 March 951 mb, 115/90 knots Despite having a slow and right-of-track bias in several forecasts track forecast errors were below the recent mean values at most lead times. The sharp turn westwards towards landfall over Australia was well

, but cloudier in the south-west where there was some persistent rain on the 5th. It continued generally sunny and increasingly warm from the 7th to 9th, but with isolated sharp showers, some of which were thundery on the 9th, particularly in the north-west. 10th to 15th A northerly outbreak brought

of the summer downpours meant there could be some sharp contrasts with, for example, some parts of London receiving much closer to average rainfall.  In addition, despite the mid-month heatwave, some unsettled and thundery conditions were in force for much of the second part of the month, which even saw