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• Microsoft Word - Jan2021_fulldocument_v1.docx

  air persisted at times in the north, resulting in some snow at the frontal boundary. Storm Christoph brought very wet and windy weather between the 19th and 21st, with many stations having over 100 mm of rain. It was colder from the 22nd to 25th with snow in places, mainly in the west

• Microsoft Word - EAfrica2019

  with atmosphere and oceanic conditions dating from between 19 August and 8 September 2018. Figure 1.1: Predicted probabilities for October-November-December 2019 rainfall from the statistical and dynamical forecasts. Probabilities are for 5 quintile categories referred to as: very dry, dry, average

• Report on remote training workshop - Sea-level science and the use of sea-level projections in Bangladesh

  % after the workshop. Participants felt they improved the most in 'physical processes responsible for sea-level change’, increasing its ‘very good’ and above rating by 50%. Finally, the event generated cross disciplinary discussion about the challenges and opportunities relating to future coastal

• uk_monthly_climate_summary_autumn_2019pdf

  was very wet over most of the UK, and this unsettled theme persisted for most of October and November. The jet stream regularly tracked further south than usual, meaning that much of England and Wales were wetter and duller than average for October and November, but parts of Scotland and Northern

• What is an ensemble forecast?

  , very small errors in its initial state can lead to large errors in the forecast. This means that we can never create a perfect forecast system because we can never observe every detail of the atmosphere's initial state. Tiny errors in the initial state will be amplified, so there is always a limit

• Positive impacts of ensemble forecasts

  of the developing storm in different members of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. This indicated a very high confidence that the storm would track over northern Britain during the evening of 31 December. Further analysis also showed a high probability of very strong winds associated with this storm

• Towyn Floods 26 February 1990

  and east and were often of hail with some thunder in places too. Apart from the far north of Scotland it was a windy night everywhere and gales or severe gales were very widespread. During the day gales affected all areas and gusts in excess of 70 mph were very common. Northern England had some

• Climate change: AMOC likely to withstand future warming

  that collapse over the next 75 years is unlikely, the AMOC is very likely to weaken, which will present climate challenges for Europe and beyond.” Professor Watson, of the University of Exeter adds: “So the AMOC is not only controlled by conditions in the North Atlantic, but also what's happening at the other

• Warming up, with another heatwave on the way for some

  some cloud and light rain or patchy drizzle at times. It will be breezy near some North Sea coasts. Whilst temperatures are expected to build day on day, becoming widely very warm or hot, they are unlikely to surpass those recorded at the start of the month. This heatwave is expected to be longer

• Winter to tighten its grip – February 2021

  : “Into the weekend snow will continue across much of Scotland, and is likely to increasingly fall to low levels before beginning to move south into northern and eastern England. Strong winds “We are likely to see some very large accumulations across higher parts of Scotland especially, with strong winds leading