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and explore ways to maximise the benefits and scientific advances across the whole programme. Contents 1. Cross-cutting theme ideas • The Global Hazard of Extreme El Niño's • UNSEEN • High Resolution Modelling • Madden-Julian Oscillation • Impacts-Based Forecasting • Climate Attribution 2. Group

Africa Work Package 2: Strengthening Institutional Capability SA/2 Metocean Forecast Improvement • The South Africa Weather Service Marine Unit have access to their own (local) observations and deterministic models as well as predictions from other operational global weather centres, including

on the day it was printed. Revision History Date of this revision: 27 th May 2016 Date of Next revision: 1 st June 2017 Revision date 27 May 2016 First issue Summary of Changes Distribution This document has been distributed to Name Title Date of Issue Version Page 2 Product Description Site specific

L5 – What have we learnt from the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers? Prof Richard Harrison Head of Space Physics Division & Chief Scientist, RAL Space We have been there! o NASA’s STEREO o Launched Oct 2006 1. A brief tour of what you get from a Heliospheric Imager 2. Some statements about the use

a day. The model’s initial state is kept close to the real atmosphere using incremental 3D-Var data assimilation. Resolution Aprox 2km Un-split File 1 [yyyymmddhhmm_u1096_ng_umqv_Wholesale1.grib] Full domain, all available time steps and the following surface level parameters: 1. 1.5m temperature 2

UKCP18 – Summer and winter changes to UK land temperature and precipitation by the 2070s Summer rainfall change Winter precipitation change Summer temperature change Winter temperature change For England 32% drier to 2% wetter 3% drier to 21% wetter 0.6 °C warmer to 2.7 °C warmer 0.1 °C cooler

Consortium meeting 2 NOAA Requirements Process • The good • Threshold requirements must be backed up by scientific literature • Goal requirements can be wishful thinking • You’ll only get the goal if it’s essentially free • Justifying requirements is difficult • The bad • NOAA requirements documentation

and distances from the Met Office site are: to Honiton Road Park and Ride: 10 minutes (700 m) to Pinhoe Station: 20-25 minutes (1.5 km) to Digby and Sowton Station: 25 minutes (2 km) Travel Devon cycle routes and maps Plan your bike journey to the Met Office using the CycleStreets journey planner Reach

Station Highest Earliest year Ranking of highest Current or previous any month Temperature (°C) / for records temperature record (°C) / Date Date Wisley, Surrey 36.5 / 19th 1904 2 37.8 / 10 August 2003 Cambridge Botanic Garden 35.6 / 19th 1904 4 36.9 / 10 August 2003 Heathrow, Greater London 35.5 / 19th

could be an important ecological threshold because many animal species rely on the presence of sea ice, ranging from algae 2 to large mammals such as the polar bear 3 . The decline in Arctic sea ice cover will also have socioeconomic impacts and will likely lead to increased human activity