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contact the Customer Centre on: Tel: 0370 900 0100 Fax: 0370 900 5050 Email: [email protected] If you are outside the UK: Tel: +44 330 135 0000 Fax: +44 330 135 0050 Far left: Met Office crest 1911—1939. Left: BAE 1910—13 logo. British Antarctic Expedition 1910—1913 The Met Office would like

temperatures in the tropical Atlantic before and during the rainy season. 1 The dynamical approach to seasonal forecasting uses numerical models of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean initialised with current observations to forecast the months ahead. There are several centres around the world which perform

simulations from CMIP5 used in the climate data analysis, from https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/availability.html. Modelling Model Institution Centre BCC BCC-CSM1-1-m Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration CSIRO-BOM ACCESS1-0 CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial ACCESS1-3

to the public. It has been a busy year for the four intergovernmental organisations that the Met Office works with. These are the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological

to markets and economic interconnectedness in the most developed countries means they have a different food security profile and are not affected by climate risks in the same way as the least-developed countries which rely more heavily on in-country food production. In addition, small countries

Overview 4 Global Outlook - Temperature Outlook: 3-Month Outlook June to August - Temperature La Niña conditions are likely to persist for at least the next three months, although it is likely to weaken during this period. Many parts of the globe are likely to be warmer than normal over the next three

the next few months at least, more especially for tropical regions. With a couple of notable exceptions (e.g., East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across many land areas of the tropics. More information on typical impacts can

: 3-Month Outlook June to August - Temperature The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral as is expected to remain so for at least the next three months, and this decreases the predictability of seasonal forecasts. Later this year, there is small chance of La Niña redeveloping. However

(ENSO) remains neutral and is most likely to remain so for at least the next three months. Later this year, there is small chance of La Niña redeveloping. However, predictions made at this time of year have lower skill than at other times and therefore the confidence in the evolution of ENSO over

). Therefore, it seems likely that La Niña will remain a dominant driver of global weather patterns over the next few months at least, more especially for tropical regions. With a couple of notable exceptions (e.g., East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter