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provided the group with an update on Met Office work on nowcasting. This work is to deliver two milestones within the CSA: Milestone 1.1: May 2018 Establish a nowcast capability within the Operations Centre for trial use during Summer 2018 and identify initial internal user requirements for the full

in the first two weeks roughly 2°C below average. The cool start to the month was due to northerly and northwesterly winds bringing cold Arctic air across the UK. A low pressure centre developed over Scandinavia in the second week of June, pushing further cold air from the north across the UK. Frontal

by cloud as diagnosed by the model cloud scheme. This is for the whole atmosphere column as seen from the surface or the top of the atmosphere. Fraction of horizontal grid square occupied by cloud in layers centred on height levels. The levels are height above ground. Fraction of horizontal grid

enhanced spatial detail or information on changes in extreme weather at local and hourly timescales. However, they are based on a single model – the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model – and lack information from other international climate models. Thus, they sample a narrower uncertainty range

by single events, which has been seen in January and February. PM1.2 Ensure warnings reach as much of the UK population as possible. Reach of amber and red warnings should be at least 70%, based on ad hoc surveys, increasing to 80% for snow. Met Five warnings were surveyed in 2022/23, one ‘Red

, largely due to observed cooling in the tropical ​Pacific. La Niña will remain a dominant driver of global weather patterns over the next few months at least, more especially for tropical regions. With a couple of notable exceptions (e.g., East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase

to remain in a neutral phase, at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring. With ENSO-neutral conditions likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer, predictability on seasonal timescales is expected to be lower than in recent years when ENSO has been active

hurricanes, 3 were classified as major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111mph. 3-Month Outlook November to January - Rainfall Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Left: Middle East and North Africa Right: Caribbean region Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Global: July

Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Global: March to December Overview 6 Global Outlook - Rainfall Outlook: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – Both oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. ENSO-neutral is expected to prevail for at least the next

, of which 7 were hurricanes. Of these 7 hurricanes, 3 were classified as major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111mph. 3-Month Outlook December to February - Rainfall Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Left: Middle East and North Africa Right: Caribbean region Likely Much More