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/s 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.28 0.90 Figure 4: A priori CH 4 emissions for 2007 interpolated onto the InTEM inversion grid. 5.4 Bayesian cost function and uncertainty elements The cost function within an inversion framework is the tool used to assess the best-fit of the a posteriori emissions and allows

to El Niño and La Niña relate only to sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Niño3.4 region (120°–170°W, 5°N–5°S). Our references to El Niño, neutral and La Niña conditions generally correspond to sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies >0.5°C, between -0.5 and +0.5°C, and <-0.5

(160°E-150°W, 5°S – 5°N), the forecast vs. observed temperature correlation is r=0.84 with a 0.67°C mean RMS error. Forecasts of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic are also skilful: in the tropical Atlantic formation region (5°-85°W, 10°N– 30°N), the forecast vs. observed temperature correlation

in knots. The knot is defined as a speed of one nautical mile per hour. 1 knot = 0.51444 m s -1 = 1.15078 mile h -1 = 1.853 km h -1 = 1.689 ft s -1 There is a close relationship between surface isobars (line joining points of equal pressure) and wind speed and direction over open level terrain