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Office and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) have set up the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service — a partnership that provides Category 1 and 2 responders with better indications of flood risk. I was extremely impressed by how well prepared authorities were – aided by the timely

and global climate 47 atmosphere and land-use model parameters were perturbed Yamazaki et al. 2021, Sexton et al. 2021 2 UKCP18 project used PPE experiments to make projections of UK and global climate 47 atmosphere and land-use model parameters were perturbed Yamazaki et al. 2021, Sexton et al. 2021 2

September 2012 Sea Ice Outlook June Report A. B. Keen, K. A. Peterson and H. T. Hewitt Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Caveat: this is an experimental projection and is not an official Met office forecast. 1) Extent Projection 4.36 ± 0.92 million km 2 2) Method (ensemble of global coupled model runs

tropical storm status. 2. Tropical cyclone activity Tropical cyclone activity NWP NEP NAT NI MED TOTAL Tropical depressions (<34 knots) 5 (2) 2 (3) 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (0) 7 (6) Tropical storms (34-63 knots) 8 (5) 8 (7) 7 (13) 3 (4) 2 (1) 28 (30) Hurricanes/typhoons (>63 knots) 15 (11) 5 (10) 11 (7) 1 (4) 0 (0

Modelling clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry project Explored sources of uncertainty in model behaviour using UKESM simulations and observations 2. Aerosol chemistry: Model uncertainty in sulphur chemistry; new heterogenous sulphur and bromine chemistry 1. Marine emissions: Model uncertainty in sea

sea ice extent for 2020, compared with recent years and the 1981-2010 average with ± 1 and 2 standard deviation intervals indicated by the shaded areas. Data are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Extent was well below average in the Barents, Kara and Laptev Seas, and below average

, [email protected] Date: December 6, 2017 Contents 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 2. Overview of Implementation Plan

Skill Score (FSS) of precipitation against GPM- IMERG data indicates that the coupled model performs better than the uncoupled model for both light and heavy rainfall events (Fig. 5) . ❑ Evaluation of 10 m wind speed and 2 m air temperature shows that the coupled model performs comparably

of years ago, and locked up in frozen permafrost. Once permafrost soil has warmed enough to thaw, decomposition of soil carbon increases significantly. This releases carbon in the form of carbon dioxide and methane – both greenhouse gases, driving further global warming. (1) (2) (3) The release

, the methodology used to generate the forecast, and a map of the regions, is provided in Part 2. Figure 1.1: Predicted probabilities for July-August-September 2021 rainfall for the Sahel (15°W to 37.5°E,12.5°N to 17.5°N); Soudan (7.5°W to 33.75°E, 10°N to 12.5°N) and Guinea Coast (7.5°W to 7.5°E, 5°N to 10°N