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The charts show tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean since 1988-89 and tracks for the most recent completed seasons.

Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - south-west Indian Ocean

The graphs below show a variety of measures of forecast errors and forecast skill for the Met Office global model forecasts of tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian region (west of 90 degrees east). For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Provisional statistics for 1-18 July show that the UK has been split over the month so far, with the south east warmer than average and the north west cooler than average.

be explained by the presence of high pressure over the southern half of the UK for much of the month so far, allowing relatively stable conditions in this region. In the north west however, less protection was offered against low pressure systems that have led to wetter and cooler conditions in the north

The charts show tropical cyclone activity in the North-West Pacific Ocean since 1988 and tracks for the most recent completed seasons.

north. Any local mist or fog soon cleared on the 6th, then it was fine but with cloud increasing from the west, and rain reached the north by late morning, spreading south and east into the Midlands during the afternoon, and parts of the south-west and East Anglia by evening. The 7th was brightest

, moving eastwards from the west during the morning. Parts of Northern Ireland, northern England, and western Wales may see drier conditions developing later in the day. Temperatures will be rather cool for late May, with the highest slightly below average across much of the UK, particularly in Northern

Thursday will bring widespread sunshine and dry weather across much of the country. Early low cloud may linger in some North Sea coastal areas and parts of the Midlands, but this is expected to gradually thin and break. However, some coastal spots may remain cloudy for much of the day. Temperatures

Friday will see an initial band of rain move gradually east over much of England and Wales through the morning and will be followed by a mixture of showers, cloud and some sunny spells at times. However, by late on Friday evening the next band of rain is arriving from the west, which

is a long-term goal of this team. Career background Gavin joined the Met Office's Post Processing team in 2013. Prior to this, he completed a PhD in Physical Oceanography at the University of Southampton entitled "Circulation and Carbon Variability in the South Atlantic Ocean". Prior to this Gavin undertook a MSc at the University of Birmingham in Applied Meteorology and Climatology, and a MPhys in Physics at the University of Warwick.

brings in some fresher air from the north 👇 pic.twitter.com/7W3dhVf1uC — Met Office (@metoffice) May 20, 2025 The warmest conditions are expected from the Midlands northwards, with highs of 22–24°C inland and to the south and west of high ground. In contrast, southwestern and central southern England