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in mean sea level. However, our best estimate suggests no additional change due to the atmospheric contribution to extreme sea level. RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 5 th 95 th 5 th 95 th 5 th 95 th London 0.29 0.70 0.37 0.83 0.53 1.15 Cardiff 0.27 0.69 0.35 0.81 0.51 1.13 Edinburgh 0.08 0.49 0.15 0.61 0.30

air-masses, the cold air over northern areas was finally displaced on the 16th as an unsettled, cyclonic regime became established. Heavy rain on the 18th affected parts of South Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, with the football match between Rotherham and Cardiff abandoned due to a waterlogged pitch

in western counties, and a high of 18.0 °C at Hawarden (Clwyd). A mild night followed, with Cardiff Bute Park not falling below 13.7 °C, then on the 21st rain persisted over central, southern and eastern counties, brighter with isolated showers elsewhere. A weak front brought a cloudy day with some

with most places dry and sunny, but it clouded over from the south later with some rain spreading into the far south. 9th to 13th A deep depression brought rain overnight 8th/9th and the temperature did not drop below 18.1 °C at Cardiff Bute Park and at Mumbles (West Glamorgan), and the 9th had a mix

sunny but cloud increased from the south bringing showery rain with isolated thunderstorms, and Porthmadog reached 31.0 °C. The night of the 1st/2nd was warm with Cardiff Bute Park (South Glamorgan) not falling below 19.1 °C, then the 2nd and 3rd were dry, sunny and very warm or hot, though cooler

light rain mainly in the west, and winds were strong in exposed parts, with a gust of 43 knots (49 mph) at Capel Curig (Gwynedd). 12th to 17th The 12th was largely sunny, as was the 13th albeit rather cloudier across the north, and very warm in places, maximum temperature 27.4 °C at Bute Park (Cardiff

. Fronts pushed slowly southwards on the 18th and 19th, and the night of the 17th/18th was notably warm with a minimum of 10.2 °C at Velindre (Powys) and Cardiff Bute Park (South Glamorgan). Rain affected most parts on the 18th, heaviest in the north, but tended to become confined to southern areas

below 13.4 °C at Cardiff Bute Park overnight 22nd/23rd. The 23rd was a dry bright day but cloudcover continued to increase from the south. 24th to 30th The weather turned more unsettled. Rain spread from the south on the 24th, reaching all parts by mid-afternoon, and this was followed by sunshine

. In Scotland, the North Highland railway was closed for a time due to flooding, and a number of roads in east Sutherland suffered minor damage with some flooding. In Wales, there was flooding on the M4 at junction 46 and on the A487, and a tree blocked the railway between Rhoose (Cardiff) and Llantwit Major

there was ferry disruption, with bridge restrictions and minor road closures due to fallen trees. Fallen trees also affected transport in Manchester and Cardiff, and on the Shrewsbury to Birmingham rail line. Dry, sunny, settled weather returned during the last week, increasing the risk of fires again. On 31