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than normal conditions across East Africa in April gave way to a normal May, coinciding with the end of the Long Rains season. It’s been normal to very dry in June. 3-Month Outlook August to October - Rainfall Central Africa was very dry in May but wet conditions prevailed in Chad during June

1400 UTC Jan 26 2016 annotated satellite image Issued 1445 UTC on Tuesday 26 Jan 2016 HIGH CONFIDENCE- Ash plume clearly discernible in imagery to north and east of Katla . EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE © Crown copyright Met Office

1600 UTC Jan 26 2016 annotated satellite image Issued 1615 UTC on Tuesday 26 Jan 2016 EXERCISE HIGH CONFIDENCE- Ash plume clearly discernible in imagery to north and east of Katla . EXERCISE EXERCISE © Crown copyright Met Office

Volcanic Ash – 1230 UTC annotated satellite image Issued 1300 UTC on Tue 14 Mar 2017 HIGH CONFIDENCE- Ash plume clearly discernible to the east of Katla. IMO radar observations report ash plume at 18km. © Crown copyright Met Office

The graphs below show a variety of measures of forecast errors and forecast skill for the Met Office global model forecasts of tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian region (west of 90 degrees east). For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

feature will be the arrival of Ex-Ophelia along the western seaboard of Ireland on Monday. Although this ex-hurricane will bring impactful weather to many northern and western parts of the UK, the forecast for other areas – such as South East England – is good with warm and mainly dry conditions likely

on Thursday for those in the southwest, with warm air from the south allowing for higher temperatures on Friday as well as a chance of the odd showery outbreak in the far southwest. This warmer air pushes further north and east through the weekend, with the possibility of more widespread showers

56.9 75 N Ireland 107.3 90 53.4 61 With regards to sunshine, there is also something of a west-east split, with the west duller than the east as a result of cloud-bearing west or south-westerly winds. However, if you look at the sunshine map below, the tendency for cloud to break to the lee of high

light throughout the day, and temperatures will be around average for the time of year. In sunnier parts of the south, it may feel locally warm. Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Alex Burkill, said: “As we go through Tuesday, it’ll be drier and brighter towards the east, wetter in the west

to see further showers and some longer spells of rain. Further north things are a little more uncertain, but generally a mix of sunshine and showers here, mainly in the east, before conditions look likely to become more widely settled into Monday.”  Further weather warnings are likely to be required