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Increasing chance of previously record-breaking UK average September temperatures Emily Wallace, Jenny Pirret www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2023, Met Office © Crown copyright 2020, Met Office Page 1 of 15 Document history Version Purpose Date 0.1 Draft 28/9/2023 0.2 Revision 2/10/2023 1

Global Outlook – Rainfall Climate Outlook Asia: April to January Asia Current Status and Outlook - Temperature Current Status: Most of the region has seen above normal temperatures over the past 2-3 months, although with the establishment of the South Asian Monsoon temperatures have been mixed

.......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Structure of Document ................................................................................................................. 2 2. What Is Strategic Planning

and Chukchi Seas, and was also below average in the seas north of Siberia (Figure 2). Figure 1: September sea ice extent during the satellite era, according to HadISST1.2, with linear trend indicated. Figure 2: Arctic sea ice extent, September 2017, compared to the record low year of 2012

is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 4 to 8. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 7.  The most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 4, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 2 to 6. The 1991-2020

Status – Central Asia Current Status: Temperature Current Status: Rainfall September October November September October November Afghanistan Mixed (1) Mixed (1) Mixed (2) Normal Normal Mixed (3) Tajikistan Hot Normal Normal Normal Wet Very Wet Kyrgyzstan Hot Normal Normal Normal Wet Wet Notes

Normal Normal Very Dry Syria Normal Normal Warm Wet Normal Very Dry Iraq Normal Normal Normal (4) Wet Mixed (3) Very Dry Yemen Hot Hot (2) Cool (5) Normal* Normal* Normal* Notes: The table gives an assessment of whether temperature and rainfall across each country have been above normal, normal

Iraq Normal Normal (6) Cool Normal* Normal* Normal* Yemen Mixed (2) Hot Hot Mixed (3) Normal* Normal* Notes: Additional Information: The table gives an assessment of whether temperature and rainfall across each country have been above normal, normal or below normal over the past three months, using

Center. Climate Outlook Global: October to July Current Status 9 Current Status – MENA – Middle East Current Status: Temperature Current Status: Rainfall October November December October November December Turkey Normal Hot Normal Normal (2) Normal Normal Palestine Normal Hot Normal Normal* Normal

June July May June July Turkey Normal Hot Hot (2) Wet Dry Wet Palestine Normal Hot Hot Normal* Normal* Normal* Lebanon Normal Hot Hot Normal* Normal* Normal* Jordan Normal Hot Hot Normal* Normal* Normal* Syria Normal Hot Hot Wet Normal* Normal* Iraq Normal Hot Warm Wet Normal* Normal* Yemen Mixed