UK National Climate Crop Capability (UKNCCC)

What is the rationale for the service? 

We recognise there is an urgent need for a coordinated approach to mitigate the impacts of climate change on UK food security.  

The UK agri-food sector, which contributed £116.2 billion (6%) to national Gross Value Added in 2020 (Defra 2023), is being increasingly impacted by extreme weather. These impacts affect domestic crop yields, agricultural practices, and international trade, with significant disruptions already occurring (e.g. Davie et al., 2023). With these impacts expected to increase in the future, they pose a pressing and growing concern to farmers and the wider food system (Falloon et al. 2022).  

Despite extensive expertise in climate change, crops, and agriculture, the UK's knowledge is dispersed and lacks coordination. By uniting research, policy, and industry, the UKNCC service aims to deliver significant advancements in science and support for adaptation policies, enhancing resilience across the UK. 

How we’re developing the service and who we’re partnering with 

By taking insights from ongoing international crop comparison projects, like the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the service includes direct UK scientific contributions and insight into UK-specific crops.  

Through the service we are developing a dedicated programme within the UK, involving academics and institutions such as the Met Office, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), James Hutton Institute, University of Leeds, University of Bristol, Rothamsted Research, and University College London. This is essential to enhancing our understanding and management of local, national ang global agricultural systems. 

Our overarching capabilities

1. Crop predictions and assessment tools 

Download PDF document [4 pages, 4.9 MB] 

2. Observations and monitoring 

Download PDF document [3 pages, 2.9 MB]

3. Climate modelling and datasets 

Download PDF document [2 pages, 360 KB] 

4. Integrated assessment frameworks 

Download PDF document [3 pages, 4.6 MB]

5. Farm-scale decision support platforms

Download PDF document [3 pages, 2.5 MB]

What will the service achieve?

We have the following aims for the service:  

1. Delivery of a consistent science evidence base  

2. Contribution to and leadership in model intercomparisons  

3. Inclusive/systems approaches to evidence synthesis   

4. Identifying and filling evidence gaps through further research  

5. Providing advice on risks, scenarios/storylines, adaptation and relationship with mitigation, broader impacts/trade-offs 

6. Enabling data access and national integration (including industry sources) 

7. Supporting effective science policy relationships e.g. through two-way feedback between science development and policy/industry applications  

8. Potential delivery of a live dashboard/forward look tool 

What benefits will the service deliver?  

The UKNCC will deliver key near-term benefits, including robust, consistent, and comparable assessments of climate impacts on UK food security, covering both domestic and international dimensions. It will also provide coordinated UK-focused contributions to the UK Food Security Report (UK-FSR), such as new or enhanced indicators, and inputs to CCRA and IPCC reports.  

In the longer term, leveraging the integration framework will extend UK-FSR climate metrics to cover a wider range of crops and agricultural impacts, improve the representation of agriculture in earth system models, and support the development of a seamless weather-to-climate advice hub for UK food and farming.

Top-level aims and near-term outputs 

Stage	Inputs	Outputs
Start/ in-progress: financial year 2026-27	• Define engagement levels: core steering/delivery group, community of practice, community of interest  • Create network/mailing list to share activities, outputs, events, workshops	• Short capability statement/ paper including:   • Current/future near and long-term potential and policy impact   • Design of the framework for integration  • Ensuring community evidence feeds into CCRA5 (Climate Change Risk Assessment 5)
Secondary: financial year 2027-28	•Focus on climate and crops   • Map key stakeholders, investments, and capabilities   • Ongoing engagement to inform priorities and capability development   • Build links with other key hubs (e.g., Land Use for Net Zero (LUNZ), Maximising UK adaptation to Climate Change (MACC), Co-Centres) and Devolved Administrations	• Initial demonstration of capability of the integration framework   • Ensuring community evidence feeds into CCRA4 (Climate Change Risk Assessment 4)  • Case study drawing on community breadth of expertise   • Royal Society Discussion meeting and paper collection, “Managing monitoring crops in changing climates”

Future concept and longer-term capabilities (2026-2030): 

1. Joint contributions and leadership: Utilize the integration framework developed in the near-term to deliver coordinated assessments of climate impacts on arable/cereal crops for:  

• Climate Change Risk Assessment 5 (CCRA5) and the UK Food security Report (UK-FSR), aligning with Climate Change Committee (CCC) framing and methods.  

• International Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs)  

• These activities will enhance the robustness of models, science, and advice, and improve communication and use of existing tools.  

2. Extension of framework: Apply the framework beyond arable/cereal crops to include a wider range of crops and agricultural impacts (e.g., grasslands, livestock, workforce heat stress, horticultural crops, and potentially the wider food supply chain). This could expand UK-FSR climate metrics beyond current capabilities.  

3. Weather-to-climate advice hub: Develop a seamless advice hub for UK food and farming, and improved representation of agriculture in earth system models. This could range from access to a virtual network of experts through to a comprehensive digital presence, depending on resources.  

4. Improved agricultural representation: Enhance the representation of agriculture in earth system models, thus leading to improved prediction.  

5. Utilising AI and machine learning (ML): Using ML/AI architectures and integrated assessment frameworks as unifying principles for crop modelling and prediction and agro-climatic and hydrological indicators.  

6. Maximising the value of the network:  

• Communications and outreach to build industry awareness and preparedness for weather and climate risks in the industry 

• Contextualizing information (e.g., land use decisions/capability, net zero goals, wider trade-offs, and consequences of actions)  

• Linking efforts across the devolved administrations 

• Coordinate with existing programmes - Maximising UK adaptation to Climate Change (MACC), Land Use for Net Zero (LUNZ), Co-Centres, and the delivery outcomes of Climate Adaptation Research and Innovation Framework (CARIF) - for prioritisation, delivery, and communication of outputs.  

What else could the service achieve? 

Subject to future funding, UKNCCC will aim to develop and provide common datasets, drivers, assumptions, and approaches to address integration and strategic evidence gaps. This includes cross-linking and integrating tools, data, models, and approaches, as well as developing capabilities to explore adaptation strategies using instrumented farms and related platforms.  

Strategic monitoring of crop yields and livestock will be critical for evaluating predictive tools and may benefit from industry collaboration. Additionally, creating a new annual 'state of UK agro-climate' report will be essential. There are opportunities for synergy with large, ongoing programmes such as MACC, LUNZ, Co-Centres and the delivery outcomes of CARIF.