Met Office 10-day weather forecast: more rain to come

Speaking in the Met Office’s 10-Day Trend, Alex discussed the ongoing unsettled theme of the UK’s weather, with little change in the forecast from the recent mixture of sunny spells, showers and some longer spells of rain.

Rain continues this week

The next pulse of heavier and more persistent rain will move from west to east over much of England and Wales on Thursday morning, with 30-40mm of rain possible in northern parts of England and Wales, with around 10mm likely more widely. This will clear out to the east later in the day, leaving behind showers and sunny spells in the afternoon.

Alex explained: “Plenty of showers will follow in behind that initial rain on Thursday afternoon, and some of these could be quite heavy with some thunder mixed in along with some blustery winds.”

Friday starts on a similar theme of showers for some, but with southern areas turning drier later in the day and some good sunny spells at times. Those further north will see more frequent showers, some of these heavier in nature.

“The bulk of England and Wales will see some pretty good weather on Friday once the earlier showers pass through and temperatures could be a touch higher than on Thursday,” said Alex.

Further rain in the weekend

By Saturday, further wet weather is likely, with some thundery showers likely for much of the country.

Alex explained what’s behind the wetter theme. He said, “The jet stream is driving an area of low pressure that’s heading towards us. It’s not an especially deep area of low pressure but it is going to bring some more unsettled weather.

“We’re going to see a swathe of heavy, showery rain pushing its way across many parts, with most areas likely to see some fairly heavy bursts at times.”

Blustery winds, hail and even thunder could accompany this on Saturday, so it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecast closer to the time for more details and potential warnings.

While showers by their nature are fairly hit and miss, so rainfall totals can vary significantly over fairly short distances, Alex explained how some places could see fairly high totals by the end of Saturday.

He said: “Not everywhere will see the highest totals, and it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where the most rain will fall… but there’s the potential that some places could see 30-40mm, possibly in excess of 50mm of rain on Saturday.”

Sunday will be the drier day in the weekend, though still with some showers around. These will be more frequent in Scotland and parts of the east of England.  

Next week’s weather forecast

In the 10-day Trend, Alex explained the different scenarios for next week’s weather, with the most likely scenario seeing a continuation of a westerly weather regime, with a continued changeable weather pattern.

Alex explained: “Most weather models are showing something next week with low pressure to the north, though the depth and position is still uncertain. That would bring wet and windy weather, particularly to northern parts.”

By the middle of next week there’s much uncertainty on the exact conditions for the UK, but there is a chance of low pressure to the west once again influencing the weather. This could bring with wet weather, but also could bring a brief ridge of warmer air to southern areas for a time.

“We could see something a little bit warmer for a time by the middle of next week, but with that there would be a lot of instability and there could be some severe thunderstorms. Not unheard of for this stage of June, but something to be aware of as one of the potential options in next week’s weather,” said Alex.

Any signs of more settled weather?

Assessing the potential for anything more settled by next weekend is difficult at this range, with in-built uncertainty in the outlook at that distance, but there’s a chance of high pressure returning for a time later in the month.

Alex concluded: “There’s a signal that we could see higher pressure becoming more of a dominant feature as we go towards the middle of June. There’s no guarantee that is definitely going to happen, it may get delayed and be later in June before we actually see the return of the more settled weather.

“Also worth bearing in mind that even if we do see high pressure building, it could just be a temporary feature so this is an element to stay up-to-date with.”

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