Met Office weather: What's in store for the next 10 days?

The UK’s dry, sunny spring is ending. A shift in weather is expected late May as high pressure fades, making way for wetter, more unsettled conditions.

The UK has seen an exceptional spring so far, marked by prolonged dry, sunny, and warm conditions, thanks to a dominant high-pressure system. But, according to our latest Ten-Day Trend, this settled spell is nearing its end, with a significant shift in the weather pattern expected just in time for the final week of May.

For now, high pressure remains firmly in control, anchored over northern parts of the UK. This system is deflecting Atlantic weather fronts away, keeping conditions largely dry across the country. However, an easterly wind is drawing in cloud and cooler air to eastern regions, with temperatures ranging from 12–15°C on the east coast to the low 20s inland and in the west.

Expect a mix of sunshine and cloud, with the latter ebbing and flowing across the Midlands, East Wales, and southern England.

READ MORE: When will it rain next?

Weekend outlook

As we head into the weekend, this pattern holds steady. Cloud may linger along North Sea coasts, but much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and the southwest will enjoy sunny skies and temperatures reaching 22–23°C. UV levels will be high, so sun protection is essential for those spending time outdoors.

However, change is on the horizon. From the middle of next week, computer models consistently predict a breakdown of the high-pressure system. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to return, bringing increased cloud and some long awaited rainfall, particularly across England, Wales, and parts of Scotland. In the 10 Day Trend, Aidan explains how hundreds of model simulations are used in what is known as ensamble forecasting to assess the probability of different weather patterns further into the future, currently the most likley pattern sees a move to a wetter, more unsettled end to the month.

This shift could bring welcome relief for gardeners and farmers hoping for rain, but it may dampen plans for the bank holiday weekend and half-term break. 

In our Ten-day trend, Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Aidan McGivern, said: “We continue to see a prolonged area of high pressure. Now, we did have a thundery interlude earlier in the week thanks to this area of low pressure which popped up for a bit, but that’s now moving away, having given some hit-and-miss thunder downpours.

“Some places stayed entirely dry, and it is going to be almost entirely dry for a long time to come because this high pressure is now setting up shop just across northern parts of the UK.

“So that high pressure is keeping weather systems away from the UK at least until the middle of next week. And that means it’s going to stay dry. It doesn’t mean it’s going to stay sunny and warm everywhere, because we’ve got an easterly wind thanks to that high pressure, and that easterly wind is pulling in, from time to time, areas of cloud further into eastern parts of the UK.

“So, Friday into Saturday and Sunday, we’ll see cloudy conditions to start off with across some central and eastern parts of England, perhaps into Wales.

READ MORE: How close are we to breaking spring records?

“But by the afternoon, it’s really that North Sea coast where we’ll see the cloud persist, mostly staying away from much of Scotland, where it’ll be largely sunny, Northern Ireland will see clear blue skies along with much of Wales by the afternoons, and the southwest. And as a result, temperatures could sreach 22, 23°C.

“Go into the weekend and it’s more of the same—perhaps a lot of cloud to begin things. It burns back to the east coast by the afternoon. Temperatures limited towards the east, 22, 23 where we’ve got sunnier skies towards the west of the UK, including western Scotland, northern and western England, and Wales.

“That cloud in the east could always give a few spots of drizzle. Otherwise, it’s almost entirely dry. The same goes for Sunday. We’ve still got that wind coming from the North Sea. Then, as we go into the start of next week, very little change at first. High pressure still dominating things towards the north and northwest of the UK. It slowly moves a little towards the northwest. But otherwise, Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday, it’s very similar.

"The last week of May could be wetter than average for the time of year, a significant turnaround in our weather patterns for the last week of spring, having seen high pressure dominate, having seen so much sunshine and so much dry weather. So, a very significant change on the way. It may be welcome news if you're desperate for some rain. It may be unwelcome news if you've got holiday plans for the half-term weekend."

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