Monday will start dry for much of England and Wales, with variable cloud and brighter spells. Sunshine will be more persistent across southernmost parts during the morning, allowing temperatures to rise quickly. It will feel rather warm here, especially where the sun remains out for longest.

Further north, Scotland and Northern Ireland will see a cloudier picture. Outbreaks of rain will affect much of Scotland early on, turning increasingly showery through the afternoon, with a few heavier bursts possible. Northern Ireland will gradually see brighter spells developing later in the day.

As the day goes on, showers will develop and push southwards into northern parts of England, later spreading into central and eastern areas. Some of these showers are likely to be heavy, with a risk of thunder and locally gusty winds. Elsewhere, particularly in the far south, conditions should stay largely dry until later.

During Monday night, heavy showers will continue to clear southwards. Behind them, a distinct west–east split develops, with clearer spells towards the west but plenty of cloud persisting in the east. This cloud may be low enough in places for some drizzle and hill fog.

Later in the night, a few fog patches could form across Northern Ireland and western Scotland where skies clear. Temperatures will fall to around average for the time of year, with a risk of grass frost in parts of the west and northwest.

Outlook for Tuesday

Tuesday will start quite grey for many, with low cloud thick enough at times for light drizzle. A few fog patches may linger across western Scotland and Northern Ireland early on.

As the day progresses, cloud will slowly lift and break. Sunshine will develop first across the west and northwest, then increasingly across eastern and southeastern areas later. It will be a notably cooler day for most, made to feel chillier by a brisk breeze, although temperatures in the northwest should recover to near average as brighter conditions develop.

Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Greg Dewhurst, said: “This morning brings a mixed start across the country, with showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland, and some mist and fog patches clearing from England and Wales. These will soon push away, allowing plenty of sunny spells to develop, particularly across central and southern parts of England and Wales.

“More heavy showers will bubble up across parts of Scotland and northern England, with the odd rumble of thunder and some gusty winds. Elsewhere it will stay largely dry, and in the best of the sunshine across southern counties of England and Wales, temperatures will once again be well above average, reaching around 21 to 22°C. Elsewhere, values of 14 to 16°C are more typical, feeling a little cooler where showers develop across the north and east.

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“Showers will continue to push southwards through Monday evening, with the odd rumble of thunder possible across parts of the Midlands and southern England overnight. This leaves a legacy of cloud, with some hill fog and patches of drizzle. The clearest skies will be across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where mist and fog patches may form.

“Under clearer skies, temperatures could fall to around 5 or 6°C, while most places remain milder at 8 or 9°C. Tuesday will start cloudy for many, with outbreaks of patchy rain and drizzle, particularly over hills. The best of the sunshine will be across Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland, though brighter spells may develop later across eastern and southeastern England, accompanied by a brisk northeasterly breeze.

“Temperatures will be lower than the weekend, with 12 to 14°C along North Sea coasts and 16 to 17°C further inland in sunshine.”

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