A band of heavy rain is expected to move slowly northwards across England and Wales during Thursday. Some of this rain could be thundery, bringing locally intense downpours in places. By evening, the rain may begin to edge into Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Behind the initial band of rain, brighter conditions will develop for some areas. Sunny spells are likely, although these will be accompanied by scattered showers, especially across south-west England and Wales. Some of these showers could become heavy.

Further north, variable amounts of cloud are expected, along with some patchy rain. Eastern parts of Scotland are most likely to see heavier showers develop during the afternoon and evening. Many areas of south-east England, however, may become largely dry later in the day following the passage of the rain.

Temperatures will remain generally warm, with the humid conditions adding to the late-summer feel in many places. The unsettled theme continues overnight as the band of rain progresses northwards. Rain, locally heavy at times, is expected to affect western parts of England and Wales while moving further north across northern England and into southern, central and eastern Scotland. The eastern fringes of Northern Ireland may also be affected.

Away from the main rain band, skies will be more variable, with cloud interspersed with a few isolated showers. Some places may experience lengthy dry spells overnight, although conditions will remain mild for many.

Outlook for Friday

Friday is expected to remain unsettled across much of the UK. Bands of heavy rain, perhaps accompanied by thunderstorms, are likely to affect parts of Scotland, northern England and Wales at times. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to become increasingly showery as the day progresses, with some showers turning heavy and locally thundery.

Despite the unsettled conditions, there will also be opportunities for brighter weather. Sunny spells are likely to develop between the showers, although these may be short-lived in some areas. Northern Ireland is expected to fare somewhat better, with much of the region likely to remain largely dry throughout the day.

Winds will generally be breezy, particularly around exposed coasts. There is also the potential for stronger winds affecting some coastal parts of the far north-east of Scotland and the far south-east of England.

Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Annie Shuttleworth, said: “Thursday will begin warm and humid for many, but also wet across southern areas as another band of heavy, potentially thundery rain moves in during the early hours. Rain across the south coast will spread north into South Wales and central England, where it could stall for a time, bringing intense downpours. Some locations could see around 50mm of rain in a short period, raising the risk of surface water flooding, as well as hail and frequent lightning.

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"As the rain gradually moves north into North Wales and northern England, brighter conditions will develop behind it, although there will still be the chance of heavy showers. Alongside this, many places can expect some drier and sunnier spells. Temperatures will reach around 27°C in the south and east, making it another warm and humid day.

"Further north, much of Northern Ireland and Scotland will remain largely dry, although eastern Scotland will continue to see more cloud, patchy rain and a cooler feel due to the persistent easterly breeze.

"Into Thursday evening and Friday, low pressure becomes more established across the UK. Areas of rain may linger and pivot across some regions, bringing further heavy downpours. By the end of the week, conditions remain mixed, with temperatures gradually easing, fresher air arriving ahead of the Bank Holiday weekend, and further spells of wet and potentially windy weather likely."

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Heavy rain and a rainbow over a river.