Tuesday will start unsettled across northern parts of the UK. Persistent and, at times, heavy rain is expected across parts of northern Scotland, accompanied by extensive low cloud and strengthening winds.

Further south, a broad area of showers will affect central and southern Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England and Wales. Some of these showers could become heavy and slow-moving, bringing the risk of thunder and hail in places. A yellow weather warning for thunder has been issued for Northern Ireland between 12pm and 9pm.

In contrast, central, southern and eastern England are expected to see fewer showers and more prolonged sunny spells. Here, temperatures will remain relatively high, with a warm and humid feel, particularly across eastern counties. Elsewhere, temperatures will be closer to average for the time of year.

Winds will also be a notable feature, especially across northern Scotland, where conditions will feel considerably less settled than further south.

Rain will continue through Tuesday night across northern areas, with some heavy outbreaks still possible. Elsewhere, a scattering of showers will persist, although many eastern and southeastern parts of England should remain largely dry with the best of the clear spells. Temperatures will stay relatively high across eastern England, making for a mild and somewhat humid night.

Outlook for Wednesday

Wednesday will see rain across northern Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland gradually moving south-eastwards through the day, reaching northern England by the evening. Ahead of this rain band, showers are expected to become more widespread and locally heavy. There is also the potential for thunder across parts of central, eastern and southern Scotland.

Elsewhere, there will still be some sunshine, but many areas of England and Wales can expect a few showers developing during the day. It will also become quite windy away from the centre of low pressure, adding a fresher feel compared with recent days.

Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be close to, or a little below, average for the time of year across most of the UK. While some brighter and warmer conditions will linger in the south and east at times, the overall trend is towards more changeable weather, with a mixture of sunshine, showers and longer spells of rain.

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Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Annie Shuttleworth, said: “It’s a warm and humid start to the day, with temperatures already in the mid to high teens across much of the UK. Parts of Scotland will see a wet start, while a thunderstorm warning is in force for parts of Northern Ireland this afternoon. Heavy downpours could cause disruption, with some locations seeing up to 30 mm of rain in a short period of time, bringing a risk of localised surface water flooding despite the recent dry conditions.

“Further north, Scotland will see more persistent rain, with rainfall totals continuing to build. Elsewhere, there is a risk of showers across Wales, northern England and southwest England, while central and eastern parts of England are expected to remain largely dry. It will be a cooler day overall, although still quite humid, with temperatures generally reaching the low to mid-20s. The south and east could still see temperatures climb into the high 20s or low 30s.

“Compared with today, eastern areas are likely to become hotter tomorrow as easterly winds ease, while western areas turn cooler in stronger south-westerly winds. Temperatures across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to change little.

“Into Tuesday evening and Wednesday, low pressure will continue to influence the weather. Persistent rain is likely across northern and eastern Scotland, while elsewhere showers remain possible, particularly in northern areas. Although there is a better chance of rain than we have seen recently, there is still no guarantee that southern parts of the UK will see significant rainfall.”

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Cycling during the summer